Removing Trump

The submission of the Mueller report to Congress last Thursday, without censoring or editing, to the surprise of many, opened a full debate on the bases for the possible removal of President Donald Trump.

If it is true that the report is not conclusive – at least as far as we have been able to confirm – regarding collusion between Trump’s 2016 election campaign and the unquestionable Russian intervention in the process, it does seem to offer more solid evidence about Trump’s clear and obvious obstruction of justice.

On that point, the lines of investigation seem to be clear in the report, and from it, one can deduce what follows: Congress should read, study the report, hold new hearings – including a hearing with Special Counsel Robert Mueller himself – to obtain new direct testimony and build a case.

For the Democrats in the House of Representatives, led by the experienced and very tough Nancy Pelosi, this is a golden opportunity. All the moral, ethical and political elements necessary to remove Trump because of his incapacity to perform the job are present.

In a little more than two years, he has demonstrated what it takes to undermine the democracy of the United States, although I don’t believe he can destroy it: His closeness with America’s old enemies (Russia, North Korea); his rupture with Iran after the important agreement reached by the previous administration; his protectionist, anti-free trade policy; his disdain for the multilateral organizations – NATO and the United Nations – that the United States has championed during the postwar years, and disdain for being a partner and ally of the European Union; his conflict-ridden relationships with his Cabinet, his tempestuous discussions with Congress; his battle against immigration and so much more.

But none of these constitutes a legal basis on which to charge the president of the United States with a crime, unless one can prove obstruction of justice or treason. It is difficult and complicated to marshal the necessary votes in the Senate, where the Democrats are in the minority.

But there is another scenario that could be much more politically and electorally practical for Democrats: leave him in the White House, with sufficient damage, discredit, and a showing of his many defects and illicit conduct, to reach 2020 at least with all that. That is to say, Democrats should not push impeachment and removal, with the political exhaustion that would result from the battle in the media and the war in social media, but instead just proceed to the point where there is inevitable proof of his tax evasion, of fraud, hidden bankruptcies, attempts to sidetrack the investigation against him and prevent the questioning of witnesses, of his very dubious contacts and relations with the Russians, of the money laundering by his children and his foundation, and where there is abundant evidence of his undesirable behavior to the point that the damage will be so public and beyond doubt that it would prevent his reelection.

This approach promises useful results in various ways. The first is having a weak candidate whose candidacy no Republican will dare challenge. More importantly, the Republicans face a deep division within their party and its principles: everything they have maintained and defended for decades has been swept aside by Trump, from fiscal discipline and debt avoidance to free trade.

An impeachment process would unify the Republicans, who will come out to defend their leader, harassed and attacked “for political reasons.” A Republican Party searching for its senses, for its compass as it recovers the principles and ideology that Trump has completely destroyed is precisely the thing that would be most favorable for the Democrats.

So Pelosi has wisely signaled prudence and caution before launching into a furious removal effort, which could very well chart a strategy toward interfering with greater political damage to Trump, without achieving his removal.

An interesting approach, although the world and Mexico will have to suffer through two more years of the chaotic occupant of the Oval Office.