While the Trump administration was making its withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement official, representatives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Bangkok were greenlighting what will be the biggest trade zone in the world.
It happened within hours. While the Trump administration was making its withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement official, representatives of ASEAN in Bangkok were greenlighting what will be the biggest trade zone in the world, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. It is an initiative dominated by the Asian countries (with the exception, for now, of India); it is led by China, and it excludes the United States. These two counterposed actions exemplify, yet again, the disengagement of the United States from globalization in its dispute with China, as well as Asia’s advancement.
For Washington, the RCEP will imply fewer markets and bigger supply chains with which to compete. And we can’t rule out the possibility that strengthening economic ties among the People’s Republic and some of its closest partners, such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and Indonesia, will give Beijing a strategic influence on these allies. The rapid advancement of the project is in response to Trump’s exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a treaty promoted by Barack Obama, seeking to bolster U.S. trade influence in Asia at the expense of China. Paradoxically, Trump’s hostility toward the multilateralism forged by his predecessors benefits a China that will not hesitate to occupy the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal, when the main asset to be taken into account in containing its Asian rival is precisely the reinforcement of the existing system.
As John Ikenberry has noted, in contrast to the Cold War, in the current world order, a group of open societies, with deeply rooted principles of democratic liberalism, with associated norms and institutions, predominates. It is the globalization model, with its shortcomings and limitations, that provides an unprecedented degree of cooperation and leadership. China is dependent on this model. The current global conditions are thus more important factors in the transition of power, the space in which the ultimate battle will be waged. By weakening these conditions, Trump is undermining the liberal environment that makes integration or transformation possible for Beijing as appropriate for them. China will be able to succeed in overtaking the U.S., but its growth figures are not so big compared with the growth figures of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, i.e., with the rest of the liberal world. In a competition between the U.S. and China, Beijing will have the advantage. But if the other party is the global regime, the balance will be inclined to it. Trump would do well to support the architecture that sustains the international system, strengthening its commitment on questions such as climate change, a struggle that requires a widespread framework for action and policies of consensus.
In the meantime, in Beijing, Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping reaffirmed their support for the “irreversible” Paris climate agreement at the same time that they finalized agreements worth millions in aviation and environmental protection.
Trump y el resto del mundo liberal
Mientras su Administración formalizaba la salida del Acuerdo de Paris, en Bangkok, los representantes de la ASEAN daban luz verde a la que será la mayor zona de comercio mundial
Sucedió en un intervalo de horas. Mientras la Administración Trump formalizaba la salida del Acuerdo de Paris contra el cambio climático, en Bangkok, los representantes de la ASEAN daban luz verde a la que será la mayor zona de comercio mundial, la Asociación Económica Integral Regional (RCEP). Una iniciativa dominada por los países asiáticos (a excepción de India –por ahora-), con China a la cabeza y que excluye a la potencia norteamericana. Dos movimientos contrapuestos que ejemplifican, de nuevo, la retirada de Estados Unidos de la globalización, en su pugna con China, y el avance de Asia.
Para Washington la RCEP implicará menos mercados y mayores cadenas de abastecimiento con las que competir. Tampoco se puede descartar un posible estrechamiento de lazos económicos entre la República Popular y algunos de sus socios más cercanos, como Japón, Australia, Corea del Sur o Indonesia, proporcionando a Pekín una ascendencia estratégica sobre estos aliados. La celeridad del proyecto responde al abandono de Trump del Acuerdo Transpacífico de Cooperación Económica (TPP), un tratado impulsado por Obama que buscaba apuntalar la influencia comercial de EEUU en Asia a expensas de China. Se da la paradoja de que el trato hostil de Trump hacia la multilateralidad forjada por sus predecesores beneficia a una China que no duda en ocupa el vacío dejado en su repliegue, cuando precisamente la principal baza con la que cuenta de cara a contener a su rival asiático es el refuerzo del sistema existente.
Como señala John Ikenberry, a diferencia de la Guerra Fría, en el actual orden internacional, predomina un agregado de sociedades abiertas, en las que han arraigado los principios del liberalismo democrático, con normas e instituciones. Es el modelo de la globalización, que con sus carencias y limitaciones, proporciona un grado de colaboración y autoridad compartida sin precedentes, y del que China es dependiente. El contexto mundial presente es por lo tanto el factor de mayor peso en la transición de poder, el terreno donde se libra la batalla definitiva. Al debilitarlo, Trump socava el entorno liberal que condiciona las posibilidades de Pekín de integrarse o transformarlo a su conveniencia. China podrá llegar a superar a EEUU, pero sus cifras de crecimiento cambian de magnitud al compararlas con las de los países combinados de la OCDE, es decir, con el resto del mundo liberal. En una competencia de a dos Pekín tendrá ventaja. Si el otro actor es el régimen global, la balanza se inclinará a favor de éste. Por ello la administración Trump haría bien en apoyar la arquitectura que sustenta el sistema internacional, afianzando su compromiso en cuestiones como el cambio climático, una lucha que requiere un marco de actuación generalizado y políticas de consenso.
Entretanto, en Pekin, Macron y Xi Jinping acaban de reafirmar su apoyo al “irreversible” Acuerdo de Paris a la par que cerraban convenios millonarios en aviación y protección medioambiental.
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It is doubtful that the Trump administration faces a greater danger than that of dealing with the Jeffrey Epstein files, because this is a danger that grew from within.