Iran and the US: A War of Numbers

After the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a hot war of pursuit between Iran and the U.S. didn’t happen. Moreover, the oil market, which shuddered anxiously right after Jan. 3, is slowly adjusting and dropping back down. On the morning of the murder, the price of Brent Crude oil jumped 2.83% (from $66.3 to $68.2 per barrel). The next morning – another 3.52% (up to $70.6). On Jan. 7, it hung between $68.61 and $68.24.

And no matter how reticent the world of oil brokers might be, there are enough analytics and insider information to form rational forecasts. Moreover, the value of such information is worth more than those who call themselves professional experts. With West Texas Oil, the picture is about the same.

Additionally, it’s clear that neither Iran, nor the U.S., especially its allies, wants a full-blown conflict, which would mean a long U.S. bombing campaign within the borders of Iran or a ground invasion. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said today that his country is “ready to return to full compliance” with the nuclear deal it made with world powers. This comes after Tehran’s Jan. 5 statement that Iran would completely cancel its nuclear deal obligations (including production, uranium enrichment, and nuclear research) and would no longer adhere to a limit on the number of centrifuges or to a limited proportion and amount of uranium enrichment. Naturally, a peace-loving statement.

And at a press conference in Mar-a-Lago, President Donald Trump decided to tackle the paradox inherent in killing Soleimani, and said that the U.S. military killed Soleimani to stop a war, not start one.

So rockets haven’t started flying yet, and shelling from ancient Katyushas (old Soviet rocket launchers) aimed at U.S. military installations in Iraq cannot yet be called military operations. Moreover, it’s not the Iranians who are doing the shelling, but their allies from Lebanese Hezbollah. But the war is already underway, although just at the level of symbolic numbers, rumors and costs so far. Trump said that U.S. forces have targeted 52 Iranian sites and were ready to deliver a very quick and very strong blow to Iran if it attacked the Americans.

Fifty-two is a symbolic number. It’s the number of Americans that Iranian fundamentalists held hostage for 444 days after the capture of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979. However, this isn’t the best symbol that Trump could use. In 1980, the Americans tried to free their people from Tehran in Operation Eagle Claw. They sent eight RH-53D Sea Stallion helicopters and 138 “specialists” from the legendary Delta force, as well as special forces group “A” and Rangers to free the hostages. The results were deplorable. The liberators did not reach Tehran, and they lost eight people, all the helicopters and even books of radio codes.

So, perhaps Trump remembered 52 as a symbol in vain. But the Iranians have their own scores to settle. Reacting to Trump’s remarks, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani noted that in remembering the number 52, the Americans “must also remember the number 290.” This is the number of passengers on Airbus A300B2-203, an Iran Air airliner which was shot down on July 3, 1988, by the USS Vincennes missile cruiser.

It is natural for the government machine to recall historical grievances and crimes on the eve of war. However, one aspect of this case is revolting to humanity – America’s statement that it is ready to strike cultural sites. How, then, do the bearers of universal human values differ from Islamic State fighters (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation) who destroyed the great antique complex of Palmyra in Syria? Only by the fact that, so far, no one has been beheaded, something the Islamic State group did to 83-year-old Khaled al-Asaad, the keeper of the Palmyra antiquities, putting the severed head between the legs of the suspended body.

In general, everything is in line with the banal pumping up of prewar brutality, with some unexpected moments, however. In particular, the situation boomeranged on the Americans. After all, it’s their way to put a bounty on the heads of their political opponents. Sometimes, this has worked, although sometimes, the Yankees have run into outright trolling.

For example, the story of the East African Islamic group al-Shabab. In June 2012, the State Department offered $33 million to liquidate the seven senior commanders of the group. In response, al-Shabab’s senior commander, Fuad Mohamed Qalaf, made his own offer the same day. He promised 10 camels to anyone with information about President Barack Obama, and a reward of 10 cocks and 10 hens for information about Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The result was that millions of dollars, as well as, camels, roosters and hens never changed owners.

Back then, it was funny. But now, there’s less desire to laugh. Amid growing Islamic sentiments, growing Muslim migration around the world and negative reaction to Trump both in the establishment of the “deep state” and in developing countries, the offer from Iranian fundamentalists may even find a lively response. The offer is now $80 million for Trump’s head. During the mourning ceremony for the murdered Soleimani, which was broadcast by Iranian Channel One, it was proposed that Iranians chip in a dollar, to provide $80 million for the people who kill President Trump.

Officially, there were no comments from Tehran on this development, and I’m sure there won’t be any. But, in any case, there will always be $80 million, and that’s not 10 camels. In such a situation it’s difficult not to recall the words of the evangelist Matthew who said, “For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again.” (Gospel of Matthew 7:2)

So far, all of this is just a threat and de rigueur in the dance of combat. But in general, anyone who tells you that he knows where he is going, is probably too self-confident in his predictions. Suzanne Maloney, an expert on Iran at the Brookings Institution, does not agree with this analysis. Let’s raise a glass in the hope that the predictions of the oil traders come true.