Opinion: The Groups that Trump Needs To Convince in Order To Win Another Term in the White House

No Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan has won the presidential election without widespread voter support from evangelicals and financial support from the Jewish right in the United States. If Donald Trump wants to remain in the Oval Office, he will need to ensure that these groups continue to support him despite the economic crisis.

In November 1948, a few months after Israel declared independence, one of the biggest surprises in the history of American politics occurred. Against all odds, Harry Truman won the election and became the 33rd president of the United States.

Four years earlier, Truman was elected vice president under Franklin Roosevelt. When Roosevelt died, Truman became president and had big shoes to fill. Roosevelt was elected president four times, led the nation during World War II, rehabilitated the economy during the Great Depression and was considered one of the most popular presidents in the history of the United States.

Truman, on the other hand, was an unknown member of Congress who became Roosevelt’s vice president by way of a compromise. In the time between becoming president after Roosevelt died and the election, Truman brought World War II to an end, recognized the state of Israel and established the United Nations. Despite this, he was dubbed the “Accidental President.”

Most of the polls predicted that Truman would lose to the Republican candidate. The Chicago Tribune, one of the biggest newspapers in the United States, announced that Truman had lost without waiting for the actual election results. Truman’s victory is considered one of the most surprising in the history of the United States. Until 2016. The 2016 election was very similar to that of 1948. As a Republican candidate, Trump was considered comic relief for the campaign, and provided material for entertainment programs. His blunt and aggressive approach, as well as his casual and informal style of speaking, were unusual in the political landscape. Most commentators dismissed him and downplayed his growing popularity among the communities he sought to address.

When Trump won, Democratic polling experts were stunned. The reality star captured the imagination of everyday Americans. Despite the contempt and ridicule aimed at him, there was a very real hope that he would be able to invigorate his base. With the 2020 election approaching, there are two groups that Trump has deeply invested in, and which will need to remain loyal to him in order for him to win.

The first is the conservative Jewish community. The Jewish community’s vote is important for a number of reasons. Most of all – for their money. While Jewish Americans only make up about 2% of the country’s population, they are 10 to 20 times more significant when it comes to the political contributions that they make. Indeed, a substantial portion of the largest contributions made to Trump’s campaign is from rich American Jews.

Another reason the Jewish vote is important is because of the influence it has on a different group in the United States – evangelical Christians. Pro-Israeli Jewish organizations in the United States serve as models for the non-Jewish pro-Israeli community. When Jewish organizations are content with the president’s treatment of Israel, so are evangelicals.

Today there are approximately 80 million evangelical Christians in the United States, about a quarter of the country’s population. Most of them are situated in the heartland of the United States, and constitute a strong supportive voting bloc for the conservative candidate. The evangelicals were not moved by the Republican candidates that ran against President Barack Obama, and did not go out to vote, thereby allowing a Democratic victory to happen twice. Trump, however, with all of the problems related to his personality and to his past, was able to animate this voting bloc.

There was a particularly high number of evangelical voters in the states that Trump won. In swing states, the Christian vote was especially important to his victory. Their support of Trump depended on a number of factors, including his support of Israel as well as his support of Benjamin Netanyahu in particular. The return of Zion and the settling of the entirety of the country are an integral part of evangelical belief.

Since Reagan, there has not been a Republican presidential candidate who has won the election without the widespread voter support of the evangelicals and without the financial support of the Jewish right in the United States. The economic crisis has always posed a significant challenge in obtaining the support of these groups. This has been true for every Republican candidate in the past, and is twice as true in the case of Trump who is now facing both the coronavirus and the economic crisis.

At the end of October 2016, about two weeks before the election, a senior adviser from Hillary Clinton’s campaign called me. He told me that everything was already in place, and that positions had already been filled. And then, mostly out of politeness, he asked me, “So, from your point of view as an Israeli, and with your familiarity with the Jewish American community, what do you think will happen?”

I thought for a moment before answering, and then told him, “If there is anything I’ve learned during my political career, it’s that you never know.” He laughed and started talking again about the positions that had been offered to him.

Now, six months before the election, there is a lot that is still unknown. There will be many more surprises along the way. But one thing is clear. The widespread support of these two pro-Israeli groups will be the best chance that Trump and the Republicans have to hold onto the White House and to surprise everyone all over again.

The author is an international political and business adviser. In the past he has served as chief of staff to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.