The Need To Know Biden

As the U.S. experiences huge numbers of COVID-19 cases and racial conflict continues to spread, the country’s resulting economic performance has been disastrous — almost all performance indicators have been negative. According to past examples, this kind of situation, 100 days before the election, is extremely unfavorable for the incumbent president, Donald Trump. Therefore, understanding how Democratic nominee Joe Biden would handle the turbulent U.S. economic and trade policies is no longer an early speculative measure but a necessity.

Although the election race between Trump and Biden originally was in a deadlock, Biden’s support has recently increased, while Trump’s continues to slide. Even a poll by Fox News, Trump’s faithful supporter, indicated that Biden’s lead has widened to 9 points. In key swing states such as Florida and Michigan, Biden’s lead has already surpassed the survey’s margin of error. With three months remaining until the election on Nov. 3, Trump’s team must put all its effort into turning the tide. Although responsibility for the pandemic response and policing issues primarily lies with the Trump administration, not everything can be blamed on Trump. Nevertheless, the economic collapse will make a comeback incredibly difficult. And so Biden, ridiculed by Trump as “Sleepy Joe,” might very well easily win the election.

In contrast to Trump’s complete departure from tradition, people like Biden, who have years of legislative and administrative experience, can easily be categorized as belonging to “the establishment.” However, in economics, trade and foreign policy, Biden has been a bit similar to Trump in that he has no clear ideology or dominant values, but rather is a pragmatist who promotes America’s interests. By 2021, the U.S. and the world will have undergone a massive change. Once Biden takes over, how he makes changes according to his pragmatic worldview will directly affect Taiwan and the world.

The most concerning problem for everyone is the relationship between the U.S. and China. Biden’s China policy approach can be classified as engagement. When he served as vice president, he met multiple times with China’s then-Vice President Xi Jinping. He has even criticized the U.S.-China trade war as a mistake that is hurting America’s middle class. At the same time, Biden has denounced China’s restrictions on human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and has accused China of stealing American technology and intellectual property. Working with a team of countries, he wants to alter the direction of global industry and economic development, and has even suggested that he will impose policies against China that are even more hawkish than Trump’s.

Broadly speaking, even if Biden is elected, I’m afraid he won’t return U.S.-China relations to what they were before. No matter how much he dislikes the trade war, the U.S. and China have already reached phase one of an agreement — and it has yet to be fully implemented. Moreover, the global supply chain has already begun to shift, spurred on by the coronavirus. Admittedly, while a partial adjustment of tariffs by Biden can’t be ruled out, the odds of him reducing them to nothing are low. As for the technology competition between the two countries, the Obama/Biden administration already began escalating it during Barack Obama’s second term. A technological adviser to the White House, warning that an eye needed to be kept on the subsidies and overseas mergers and acquisitions happening as part of the “Made in China 2025” plan, called upon the U.S. to increase investment in technology and human talent. Trump has already begun moving in this direction, and Congress has a bipartisan consensus on the matter. There is no sign that Biden will reverse this course after he takes office.

Perhaps one obvious change if Biden is elected will be that the U.S. will gradually return to a regional, or even multilateral ideology, as opposed to its current unilateral self-interest. Biden has repeatedly emphasized that the U.S. must play the role of a good world leader and join allies with similar values in opposing the threat posed by totalitarian nations. Upon taking office, Trump immediately withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was proposed during the Obama administration. Biden has suggested that rejoining the TPP is not the priority; rather, he wants to link TPP member countries to America’s other free trade agreements, creating a new U.S.-led system of trade rules that China can be forced to comply with. Still, the U.S. may return to cooperating with China on issues such as climate change and nuclear weapons.

Trump’s four years in office have caused deep divides in the U.S. Important issues such as education, health insurance and infrastructure have been beset by a host of problems. In addition, the pandemic has badly damaged the U.S. economy. Therefore, Biden will probably prioritize healing the country and rebuilding the economy. The international trade order may not be changed quickly.

While Trump has been in office, Taiwan-U.S. relations have never been stronger. Unfortunately, the government has been unable to create a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan or join in any regional agreements. If Biden, supported by the Democratic Party, the establishment and pragmatism, regains control, the overall confrontation between the U.S. and China will not change, but the situation may become less tense. What will this mean for the supply chain, which is undergoing structural change? What will it mean for Taiwan? If Taiwan-U.S. relations cool while the U.S.-China technology competition continues to heat up, how is Taiwan supposed to handle itself? How can it facilitate an entry point to join a Taiwan-U.S. free trade agreement — and even the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership? The Taiwan government and businesses must start looking at all of these questions.