Elections in the US

Three months away from the U.S. presidential election on the first Tuesday in Nov., Donald Trump faces little chance of being reelected. Not one poll shows him as winning. The major ones even show him more than 10 points behind Democrat Joe Biden.

With a 33% drop in the GDP and unemployment at 15%, Trump doesn’t have anything to show in order to recover the passions that carried him to the White House. His disastrous management of the pandemic and ongoing nonsense with foreign policy have positioned the U.S. as the negative benchmark in international affairs. Several analysts claim that this election will not be won by Biden so much as lost by Trump.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen what kind of ace the tycoon has up his sleeve.

The current tension with China and Russia, who are gaining global influence, can serve to demonstrate American fortitude in support of Taiwan and Hong Kong. Closer to home, Trump still holds the Venezuela card, including plans for military intervention. This would be a catharsis of the memory of Vietnam for the U.S., very helpful for regaining votes among Republican nationalists.

Less likely is that he opts to attack a less powerful enemy, Nicaragua, as occurred with Noriega in Panama. Cuba is another story, having endured all the possibilities of embargo with the Helms-Burton Law, which Obama softened in his last executive order.

On a second path, he could rely on an economic stimulus from the Treasury, including assistance to industrial production, agriculture, livestock and mining. In the short term, this would guarantee an improved perception of the U.S. economy. In addition, he is feeling out the unprecedented possibility of delaying the election.

Despite this, the election is Joe Biden’s to win. Biden’s next bombshell will be the naming, prior to August 11, of his candidate for vice president because he already promised Democrats that this would be a woman. Biden is debating between California Senator Kamala Harris, Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth, Susan Rice (former ambassador to the U.N. under Obama) and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Democrats already know from experience not to sell the bear skin before the hunt.