US Election Produces Tensions in Taiwan Strait

Only a few more than 70 days remain until the American presidential election. Due to President Donald Trump’s terrible domestic policy, the inadequate pandemic response has caused the highest number of infections in the world and an economic recession, all while racial conflict has erupted across the country. All of this has challenged Trump’s road to reelection. Swing states that helped elect Trump last time might help Democratic rival Joe Biden win by a wide margin. Regaining the upper hand will not be easy. Thus, in the two months remaining before the election, Trump must pull out all the stops.

Trump might regain an advantage one of two ways: One, many states are planning to use mail-in voting during the pandemic. Possible delays might prevent the voting outcome from being determined on election night. Democrats worry that Trump might use this as an opportunity to declare voter fraud, reject the efficacy of mail-in voting and even refuse to relinquish power if he loses. Two, countries across the globe are worried about what “surprises” October might bring as Trump focuses all of his reelection efforts on international policy. They fear he might try to achieve diplomatic victories in September and October, and even create some sort of military crisis that he can use to boost his campaign.

Since the trade and technology wars started two years ago, Trump has consistently made an imaginary enemy out of mainland China. In recent months, he has closed a Chinese consulate, issued bans on Chinese companies TikTok and WeChat and used the situations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong to sanction officials in the Chinese Communist Party. Nothing in his toolbox, however, can provoke the CCP more than Trump’s U.S.-Taiwan policy. In addition to sending U.S Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar to Taiwan, the Trump administration announced arms sales to Taiwan. In response, the CCP immediately declared it would conduct military exercises in the northern and southern parts of the Taiwan Strait. The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-96 might be about to repeat itself.

In addition to the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea is also a point of conflict. The USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group entered the South China Sea on Aug. 14 and had already sailed to waters east of Dongsha Island by Aug. 15 to carry out anti-aircraft military exercises. In response, China sent Xian H-6 bombers, capable of carrying long-range supersonic missiles, to Yongxing Island in the South China Sea in preparation for conflict.

Beijing is reluctant to enter into conflict with the U.S., lest it be pulled into Trump’s reelection scheme. According to reports, the theme of the currently convening Beidaihe meeting is “maintaining China-U.S. relations.” Based on the recent willingness expressed by CCP diplomats, including Yang Jiechi and Cui Tiankai, to “talk openly” with the U.S., the CCP apparently wants to stabilize bilateral relations with the U.S. before the election. Not only would this guard against provocation by Trump before the election, but it would send a message to Biden, the potential winner of the election, that China and the U.S. can work together to repair relations.

For Biden, this is an important message. According to a report by The New York Times, hawkish strategists around Trump have stepped up their plans to strain U.S.-China relations to a point of difficult return before the election. This way, even if Biden is elected, repairing the damage quickly would be hard. In the article “Why America Must Lead Again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump,” recently published in Foreign Affairs, Biden elaborated on his ideas about competition with China. While he does not agree with the U.S.-China trade war, he believes the U.S. must continue to take a leadership role in international trade — not bury its head in the sand. To respond to threats from China, the U.S. should strengthen its economic cooperation with allies instead of destroying the international system the U.S. itself has carefully constructed.

When Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris to be his running mate, the response from the rest of the world was mostly positive. Harris’ identity as an African American and Indian American woman contrasts with Trump and Mike Pence’s “old white men” identity; in light of the current Black Lives Matter movement, this can ensure some respect for minorities. Harris and Biden are both centrist Democrats, not extreme leftists. While Harris served in the Senate, she called for protecting American technology from illegal acquisition by Chinese spies. Still, she is a pragmatist: regarding adding tariffs on Chinese goods, she urged the White House to proceed cautiously so as not to harm American companies, workers and consumers.

Everyone in the U.S. agrees that the most important diplomacy issue in this election will be China policy. A recent editorial by The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Taiwan lies at the heart of the U.S.-China power struggle. Whether it’s about the importance of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to U.S. and Taiwanese technology, or Taiwan’s strategic position, both Trump and Biden should clarify their policies toward China and Taiwan before the election.

The last time Taiwan was the focus of a U.S. election debate was all the way back in 1960, when John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon were running. At that time, the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, Kinmen Islands and Matsu Islands were focal points of their elections. Sixty years later, Taiwan’s security and cross-strait relations have once again become the focus of U.S. politics. This is not necessarily good for us, however — we must remain on the alert.