Is a US-China Showdown Near?

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 23 August 2020
by Qiping Shi (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jaime Cantwell. Edited by Daniel Rosen.
Forty-one years after the formal establishment of U.S.-China diplomatic relations, the condition of those relations and the Taiwan Strait is in unprecedented turmoil. Both parties now ask the same question: What is to come with U.S.-China relations in the future? Will a serious conflict erupt between both sides? Additionally, following this conflict, how will China, the U.S., and the overall global order change?

When discussing the U.S.-China conflict, what we are really talking about is the Thucydides Trap — the struggle between an existing power and an emerging power. It is necessary to point out that there are not just one, but multiple traps for the U.S., the world’s leading power. The first is something that is completely unprecedented. In the past, challengers have usually been able to challenge the U.S. on one or two aspects, but China has put pressure on the U.S. with everything from trade and the economy, manufacturing, science and technology, military affairs, the space race, and even national values and governance. Secondly, China is rising to the U.S. and is catching up at a quicker rate than ever imagined. Thirdly, the U.S. has tried everything to suppress China’s development, but to no effect.

The situation reminds us of American political scientist Graham Allison, the Harvard professor who first coined the term “Thucydides Trap.” [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap ] In the statistical research of the history of mankind’s superpower disputes over the past 500 years, we find that there have been 16 of these conflicts in total. 75% of these disputes have resulted in war, while only 25% have managed to avoid war. Does the fate of the 17th dispute lie with the 75% or the 25%?

Using a volcanic eruption as an example, the future is not looking bright. The reason that volcanoes erupt is that power has been accumulated and stored for a long time, so much that it eventually results in an eruption. This metaphor can be put in parallel with U.S.-China relations and the South China Sea. The reason that the United States has dominated the world for the past 100 years is mainly because it was able to fight off the other competing powers, such as England, Germany, Japan and Russia, just as it is facing China today. The U.S. has to be able to defeat China, no matter how difficult the battle. Otherwise, American global dominance will cease to exist. From Obama to Trump, the U.S. has tried every way to defeat China, but has made minimal impact. The U.S. has two methods to fight against China: the financial market and Taiwan. The first is extremely risky, which leaves only one option: the Taiwan card. The U.S. is able to use Taiwan to cut into China’s sovereignty until China finally cannot restrain itself and sparks a local military conflict, which would in turn harm its stability and development.

Let’s take another look at China. China has three primary reasons to solve the Taiwan problem, the first being its territorial and sovereign integration along with the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The second is creating a chain of islands in order to turn around its strategic disadvantages in the Western Pacific (Chinese man-made islands). The third is that Taiwan is vital to the stability and power status of Mainland Chinese leaders.

Returning to Taiwan’s perspective, one reason that Taiwan has maintained a pro-U.S., anti-China stance, is that it is a strategic plan to use the U.S.-China conflict as a mechanism to gradually realize Taiwan’s true independence.

It should be said that when it comes time for a showdown in the Taiwan Strait, China, the U.S. and Taiwan will all have built up a great deal of power. Of course, just like a volcano, it can be predicted that a conflict will erupt, although it is uncertain exactly when.

Do U.S.-China relations have a chance of beating the odds and coming out with the 25%? Of course! The main factor here is U.S. military strategy and tactics in U.S.-China relations and the Indo-Pacific realm. If the U.S. is unlikely to win, it may choose to cooperate with China instead of entering into a military conflict. No matter what choice is made, however, it may no longer be time to be on the American side.

The author is a senior commentator on Phoenix TV


當前的中美關係及台海形式空前詭譎,是中美建交41年來僅見,各方無不關心:中美關係怎麼走下去?雙方會否爆發嚴重衝突?以及,如果衝突之後,中國、美國及全球形勢又將如何變化?

中美矛盾的本質,說到底就是「修昔底德陷阱」老大、老二的矛盾,必須看到,存在於中美之間的這種陷阱不只一個,且是複數的,對美國這個全球世紀霸權而言,一、這是前所未見的:以往挑戰者最多只在一或兩個方面挑戰美國,但中國卻在幾乎所有領域,從經貿、製造、科技、軍事、太空到價值觀乃至國家治理及全球治理,都對美國形成了壓力;二、中國作為老二,追趕老大的速度之快超出想像;三、遏制不住:老大想方設法壓制老二,效果明顯不彰。

這樣的形勢,就讓人想到Allison(最早提出陷阱論的哈佛教授)對人類500年來老大老二矛盾史的統計研究,500年共16對老大老二矛盾,爆發及倖免於戰爭的機率分別是75%及25%。那麼,第17對的命運又將如何,是75%還是25%?

藉火山爆發的例子為喻,現在的形勢看來並不樂觀。火山之所以爆發,是能量之蓄積已久,已大到終於不得不併發的結果。對照到中美關係與台海形勢,先看美國,美國之所以稱霸全球100年,關鍵之一是能夠鬥垮所有挑戰他的一眾老二或老三,如英、德、日、俄,如今面對中國,雖然很難鬥,但必須把中國往死裡打。美國別無選擇,因為不鬥垮中國,美國就霸權不再。但從歐巴馬到川普,用盡所有手段,對中國最多只傷了皮毛,唯二能傷到中國筋骨及元氣的只剩金融及台灣兩個手段,但前者風險大,不確定性高,不敢妄動,剩下的選擇只有台灣牌可打。打台灣牌,手段是不斷削中國主權,削到中國終於按捺不住,爆發局部軍事衝突,最終衝擊或打擊中國的穩定與發展。

次看中國大陸。首先,大陸解決台灣問題有三大動機:一、事關領土、主權完整,實現中華民族偉大復興;二、直出第一島鏈,翻轉與美國博弈在西太平洋的戰略劣勢(南海造島)條件皆已具備;三、攸關大陸領導人權力地位的穩固。

再看台灣。台灣執政當局之所以立場鮮明地親美抗中,不排除是一種戰略估計,藉中美世紀大搏鬥之機,逐步實現台灣真正的獨立。

應該說,對於迎接台海的攤牌時刻,中、美、台三方面都已持續蓄積了極大能量。當然,就像火山,雖然可以研判即將爆發,但具體時刻無從猜測。

中美關係有無可能出人意料地不走向75%而是25%的概率?也有!主要關鍵在美國一方,如果美國戰略與軍事部門對中、美在西太軍事實力的科學評估結果,美方勝算不大,也有可能捨軍事衝突而選擇與中國的合作或交換。但無論如何選擇,在這個地區或更大範圍,時間也許已不在美國一方了。

(作者為鳳凰衛視資深評論員)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Japan: The Role of a Diplomatic Attitude To Maintain the International Order

Indonesia: Trump’s 19% Tariffs: How Should We Respond?

Ireland: US Tariffs Take Shine Off Summer Economic Statement

Russia: The Issue of Weapons Has Come to the Forefront*

Topics

Russia: The Issue of Weapons Has Come to the Forefront*

Colombia: How Much Longer?

Germany: Tariffs? Terrific!

Spain: The New American Realism

Mexico: Trump vs. Cuba: More of the Same

Ireland: US Tariffs Take Shine Off Summer Economic Statement

Israel: Epstein Conspiracy: When the Monster Has a Life of Its Own and Rises Up

Related Articles

Taiwan: Trump Stacks the Deck: EU-Canada Trade Talks Forced To Fold

Germany: Trump’s Tariffs: China Acts, Europe Reacts

Australia: As Trump Turns His Back on Renewables, China Is Building the Future

Indonesia: US-China: Tariff, Tension, and Truce

China: US Chip Restrictions Backfiring