The American Presidential Election and Iraq

Among the countries that have followed the Nov. 3 presidential election in the U.S. most closely is Iraq. The foreign policy that the new administration will implement in the Middle East is a matter of particular interest to Iraq, which has long been squeezed in the rivalry between Tehran and Washington. In this context, the most important agenda items for Iraq will be the presence of American soldiers in Iraq, relations with Iraqi Kurdistan, and Iran.

During the Donald Trump era, preserving an American presence in Iraq and the imposition of sanctions against Iran had a negative impact on Iraq in a number of ways. It prolonged the process of forming a government, resulted in social and economic crises that have gripped the country as a result of sanctions and led to continuing terror attacks and other activities by armed groups close to Iran. These all reflect the situation.

In the period after Trump, foreign policy toward Iran will be of great concern to Iraq. In the event that the Iran nuclear agreement, shelved by Trump, returns to the agenda and sanctions are relaxed, Iran may once again have some breathing room in the region. In that case, Iraqi groups that are close to Iran may become active again. In such a scenario, existing ethnic and sectarian fault lines may shift, and Iraq may slide easily into instability.

Will American Policy Change at All?

Last week, after a chaotic presidential election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden was declared the winner. While many people think that Biden’s victory will usher in a new era in American foreign policy, it will be difficult to make this optimistic expectation a reality. No matter how much Biden seeks to surmount the wreckage of the Trump era, it is not hard to predict that he will maintain some of the same policies. Any radical change will be obstructed by the crises occurring in international institutions, and by the lingering effects of Trump’s isolationist foreign policy.

From Iraq’s point of view, the establishment of a stable relationship with the U.S. during a Biden administration is emerging as the desired scenario. But there are still many question marks around the realization of this goal, including Iran’s position and the internal dynamics in Iraq. Attacks on American soldiers in Iraq by armed groups close to Iran, particularly the Hezbollah Brigades, may compel the Biden administration to take a hard line against Baghdad. In order to avoid this outcome, the Iraqi central government must steer clear of conflict and follow a stable political path.

Will Iran Have Waning Influence?

Many Iraqi officials consider Trump’s electoral defeat the beginning of a new era. There is widespread belief that the Washington-Baghdad relationship, weakened during the Trump era, will be reinvigorated under Biden. But one can see similar optimism among groups aligned with Iran. These groups believe that under a Biden administration, the pressure on Iran will be reduced, and the shelved nuclear deal will return to the agenda. The idea that Iran’s influence over Iraq would be reduced in such a scenario is simply unrealistic. On the contrary, Iran will find this environment much easier to navigate.

In the event that Iran’s influence grows, the existing conflict between the Sunni and Shiite factions in the country may worsen. Generally speaking, Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq consider the American presence to be a force of equilibrium against the Shiites. Conversely, many Shiite groups continue to see the American presence in Iraq as a threat, especially since the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

As a result, the position adopted by the new administration vis-à-vis Iran in this new period will have existential importance for Iraqi politics. If Iran is suppressed, groups aligned with Iran may stoke further conflict. If not, that creates the possibility of increasing Iran’s area of influence, at least for some period of time. Either way, Iraq can expect an unstable environment.

What’s in Store for Turkey?

In its relations with Iraq, Turkey always emphasizes security and stability. This is not going to change, no matter which party takes control of the new administration. Even if the prospect of a post-Trump era raises expectations in terms of the regional players, Turkey must take the necessary steps to ensure its own security and stability. It is within this context that relations with Iraq must be evaluated.