A Fragile Republic

The presidential election in the United States held at the beginning of November became a referendum on keeping American institutions intact. Joe Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, had succeeded in pushing his candidates to top positions in the U.S. judicial branch. If he had won, Trump would have tried to challenge the U.S. institutions and destabilize the separation of powers.

In that case, it would have been harder to check Trump’s political decisions. Yet Trump was not reelected, so this scenario is at least postponed until the next election.

If the Democrats are serious about preventing the destruction of key political institutions in the United States in the next four years, Biden will have to demonstrate to his opponents that his party is prepared to launch political and economic reforms to solve structural problems that have accumulated over the years. That is a challenging task, and the difficulties mostly stem from political rather than economic issues.

Until Biden takes office and serves in his new role for a while, we cannot assume that he is committed to the proposed reform plan. When Barack Obama was president, many decisions concerning solving key structural problems did not end up on his administration’s list of priorities.

Biden’s reform plan is mostly ra reaction to longstanding weaknesses in the U.S. economy, which the Democrats have come to recognize over the last four years. Yet, it is unclear how hard Biden will try to follow through on his promises and what his economic policies will look like.

Another problem in U.S. politics is the extreme political polarization among voters. Today, the most important factor in political decision-making is party affiliation. If an initiative comes from a Democrat, a Republican politician is going to try to prevent it from being implemented. This significantly complicates the Democrats’ attempts to put their reform plan into effect, especially if we consider the current party breakdown in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

This kind of polarization is new in American politics. When Franklin Roosevelt was trying to control the U.S. judicial system by adding more Supreme Court justices to get the New Deal implemented, he faced pushback from both the Democrats and the Republicans.

Finally, it is not quite clear yet how long the members of the Democratic Party are going to agree and cooperate with each other, and whether the new president is going to be able to receive wide support from his own party.

In terms of economic resources, the new U.S. president has much more freedom with regard to his decisions. The United States remains one of the most economically and technologically developed countries in the world. In the Economic Complexity Index, the United States is at the top of the list alongside Germany and Japan.

In highly developed economies, substantial economic problems become visible only over a long period of time. Currently, the complex issues the United States has to address in the spheres of social justice, equality of opportunities and distribution of economic wealth are more political.

One of the reasons for the inequality of opportunities in the U.S. lies in the design of the American educational system and the unequal distribution of resources at both the primary school and higher education levels. The government’s attempts to iron out these differences have been insufficient. During his campaign, Biden promised to make public colleges tuition-free for households with yearly incomes below $125,000.

Another crucial issue for the United States is health care inequality, namely the fact that the U.S. does not have a free universal health care system. During his campaign, Biden promised to introduce such a system, yet it is unclear what it will look like if the president succeeds.

Social Security is another slow, unwieldy and ineffective system that needs to be reformed, as do labor rights. That would allow more employees to have a stronger bargaining position in negotiations with employers.

Biden will have to convince Trump supporters that the Democratic establishment will not ignore their needs. If the new administration does not fulfill its promise and focuses on the interests of the wealthier voters, in the next election, many American citizens will support a candidate capable of fundamentally changing U.S. political institutions. That will lead to the concentration of power in the hands of a new leader.

The United States is now facing a relatively small but important window of opportunity for solving accumulated problems and alleviating tensions.