Be Prepared for Unpredictable Last 60 Days of Trump Presidency

On Nov. 16, The New York Times reported that President Donald Trump considered a military missile attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. It is reported that Trump asked his staff during a meeting at the White House about possible measures to attack Iranian nuclear facilities within a few weeks, but the officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, dissuaded Trump, pointing out the risk of potential military retaliation. Trump withdrew the United States from Barack Obama’s Iranian nuclear agreement in 2018, just one year after he took office. It is believed Trump intends to place a roadblock for President-elect Joe Biden’s announced plan to return to the Iranian nuclear Aagreement right after his inauguration.

In addition to this move, CNN reported, the Trump administration may order additional withdrawals of U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq by next January within the week. The number of U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq have already been reduced to 4,500 and 3,000, from 14,000 and 5,000, respectively. With additional withdrawal, the number of U.S. troops stationed in both countries is expected to be reduced to 2,500 each. This move, working to realize the “America First” policy Trump has championed throughout his presidency, is expected to cause quite a big change in the Middle East.

No one knows how Trump will behave for the remaining 60 days of his presidency, and the idea of a risky move by Trump is putting the whole world in panic mode. It is not implausible to imagine that the world order will tremble until Trump’s final days due to his unpredictable behavior, and we should not assume that the Korean Peninsula will be immune. Trump, who still refuses to concede the election to Biden, may cause unexpected turbulence in the South Korea-U.S. alliance, including with respect to issues surrounding North Korean affairs and the U.S. Armed Forces stationed in Korea.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry has operated a special task force team since last August to respond to the U.S. election, and it has changed the system of the task force to seek closer communication and cooperation with the new administration. The South Korean government should seek to communicate closely with the next U.S. administration about cooperative issues between the U.S. and South Korea, including the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the Korean Peninsula peace process and COVID-19. However, like in the case of Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha’s recent meeting with Mike Pompeo, the South Korean government must also maintain a close relationship with the Trump administration until Biden’s inauguration to avoid any unexpected situations.