Why Is United States Eager To Negotiate on Situation in Donbass and What Does It Mean for Ukraine?

Russia will not be able to prevent the United States from joining the Normandy Format because expanding the Normandy Format represents a lesser evil for Putin.*

According to Der Spiegel, the new U.S. administration, led by President Joe Biden and which includes Secretary of State Antony Blinken, is unhappy with the Normandy Format because it has been ineffective in resolving the situation in Donbass, and the administration wants the United States to participate in negotiations.

Indeed, the United States is preparing to take an active part in resolving the conflict in Donbass, because it will be able to influence the situation and put political pressure on Russia. If the Biden administration intends to pursue a policy of confrontation with Russia, the Normandy Format provides the United States with an excellent and very convenient way to influence both the political situation in Russia and Russia’s position in the international arena.

Enlarging the circle of participants in the Normandy Format if the United States joins would benefit Ukraine. However, ideally, we should have involved all the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum in the negotiation process, but no one did. Although the United Kingdom and Poland have repeatedly applied to join the Normandy group over the past seven years, our government, both previous and current, has put that on hold. Moreover, Moscow has always stressed that there can be no change in who the negotiators are.

Why Will Putin Agree to US Involvement?

Russia will not be able to prevent the United States from joining the Normandy Format, just as it will not be able to withdraw from the negotiations if the United States joins in. America’s involvement constitutes a lesser evil for Vladimir Putin and his group, because otherwise, the United States will take any action it can to shake up the situation in Russia and remove Putin from power.

If Russia acts to resist talks because the U.S. joins the Normandy Format, the United States will force Putin to make a choice in the next six months: Either accept a compromise offered by the Americans, or face removal from power. In other words, Putin will have no choice. If Putin begins to fight, then Russia will face senseless and ruthless rioting.

History tells us that even at Adolf Hitler’s headquarters, his generals held separate negotiations with the Americans. As soon as they reached an agreement, Hitler’s fate was sealed. Russia will repeat the same scenario: As soon as Putin’s elite reaches an agreement with the West, his days will be numbered. Not weeks, not months, but days. And then, there will be a palace coup.

What American Participation Will Change in the Negotiations

In any case, the current Normandy Format is designed to resolve an internal conflict that does not exist in Ukraine. If the United States joins the Normandy Format, it will clearly present the question of who is a party to the conflict. And the clear answer will be: Russia. There are no militias, LPR or DPR.* American intelligence knows that there are quasi-states developed by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.

If the United States becomes a party to the negotiations, the Ukrainian leadership will remain as submissive as it is today. The Ukrainian leadership does not have its own opinion, especially in the international arena. This was the case under Petro Poroshenko, and this is the case under Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Our government does what it is told to do.

It will all depend on whether the United States will benefit if Kyiv finally recognizes war as war, and Russia as the aggressor.

It was mainly Congress that put pressure on Russia, but the Donald Trump administration didn’t plan to do that. Indeed, throughout his term, Trump tried to befriend Putin and convince Americans that Putin was a wonderful man. However, Congress consistently imposed conditions on Trump’s actions that forced him to sign orders imposing sanctions on Russia. It should be noted, however, that Trump’s interests and those of Congress coincided on certain matters. For example, in supporting the interests of the shale gas industry lobbyists, Trump benefited from winding down the Nord Stream-2 project in order to supply American liquefied natural gas to Europe.

Biden will take the opposite approach. As the U.S. Democratic Party has practically bought out Russia’s Gazprom, Biden will allow Putin to complete the Nord Stream-2 project at first, which will give the Americans an opportunity to shatter the situation in Russia later on. Biden and other Democrats understand that internal instability in Russia would bring them no particular benefit, while Russia’s instability at the international level, achieved through armed conflict, could be much more beneficial for the United States. For example, if the United Nations recognizes Russia as an aggressor country, and removes it from the U.N. Security Council, or deprives Russia of its veto, or forces U.N. member states to impose an embargo, this would mean the collapse of Russia.

That’s why the United States is trying to enter the game now, because it will benefit the most.

In this case, like a trained dog, Ukraine will heed the commands to sit!, stand! and fetch! In this respect, we are not a sovereign state; we do what we are told.

The only plus in this fuss is that the interests of the United States are clearly outlined in Ukraine. Both Democrats, to a greater extent, and Republicans, to a lesser extent, have invested a lot of money here. Accordingly, Ukraine has become a heavy load that is cheaper for the United States to carry than to discard. That is why Americans will never again let Russia get inside Ukrainian territory or allow the border between Russia and NATO to run along Ukraine’s western border.

It is much more profitable for Americans to have a buffer state that is actually at war with Russia. And if the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates, the Americans would provide Ukraine with weapons so that we could launch an offensive operation in the east. In this case, Zelenskiy might begin to see the light and recognize that Russia is the enemy. Meanwhile, judging by his rhetoric, we are at war with some weird “other side.” And then, we will go on the offensive with Javelin missiles.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is just a pawn on the U.S. political chessboard.

Does the US Benefit from Ending the War in Donbass?

The answer to the question of whether the United States is interested in resolving the situation in Donbass as soon as possible will depend on the success of United States foreign policy in Russia.

If the Americans manage to pursue their policies in Russia and bring a more loyal political clan to power, then the conflict in eastern Ukraine will end being a symbol of American victory over Russia. If Putin manages to hold out for a while and barricade himself in his bunker, the conflict will continue.

In short, even if the United States joins the Normandy Format, Ukraine is likely to remain in a suspended state. We are just a tool.

The author, Oleg Zhdanov, is a military expert and a colonel in the reserves.

*Editor’s note: The author is referring to The Normandy Format talks which involve the representatives of four countries, Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France, who met informally during the 2014 D-Day celebration in Normandy, and who aim to resolve the war in Donbass.

**Translator’s Note: DPR stands for the Donetsk People’s Republic and LPR stands for Luhansk People’s Republic. Both are self-proclaimed states established in 2014.