Ukraine Is Lost; US Tries To Succeed in Kazakhstan*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Kazakhstan, Russia's neighbor and partner, seems to have already identified a number of red-line issues in its relations with Moscow, which helped the country avoid a bloody civil war back in January. Nur-Sultan has no intention of recognizing the independence of the Donbas republics. Moreover, it is now trying to provide excuses for the recent news report about 1,700 railcars with Russian coal halted in Kazakhstan, which turned out to be untrue. Tsargrad attempts to figure out how these developments can affect the future relations between Moscow and Nur-Sultan.

This winter, Russia helped Kazakhstan keep the peace in the country and avoid a civil war, and ensured that its president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, remained in office. However, by summer, Russia's Asian neighbor and longtime Collective Security Treaty Organization partner officially refused to recognize the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. In addition, Vladimir Putin invited Tokayev to participate in the 25th International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, the Russian leader's hometown, but he didn’t expect Tokayev to make a sensational statement.

Did Russia Really Plan To Award Tokayev?

Tokayev made the statement after Putin's hour-long speech. It was rather awkward and seemed out of place.

“In general, it has been estimated that if the right to self-determination is put into practice worldwide, then there will be around 500-600 countries instead of the 193 states, which are currently U.N. members. Of course, it will be chaos. For this reason, we do not recognize Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia or Abkhazia. Apparently, this principle can also be applied to quasi-states, which, in our opinion, are Donetsk and Luhansk,” Tokayev stated.

He clearly tried to please not only the U.S. and the EU, but by mentioning Taiwan, he also tried to butter up China, which in recent years, according to his own words, has invested over $21 billion in Kazakhstan's economy.

At a time when Russia is conducting its special military operation in Ukraine, it would seem reasonable for the CSTO members to stand shoulder to shoulder, just as Russia and Belarus do. Unfortunately, it is not the case with Kazakhstan since it is trying to achieve its own political ends.

To Putin's credit, he reacted rather moderately to Tokayev's absolutely pro-Western speech, arguing that the cooperation between the two countries has always been multifaceted. However, what made Tokayev take such a step in the light of the January anti-government riots in Kazakhstan, which were quelled by Moscow and may have been instigated by Western intelligence services?

We saw further developments on this front a day after the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Kazakhstan media reported that Tokayev refused to accept an Alexander Nevsky Order of Merit. Meanwhile, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that there were no plans to give any awards to Tokayev. However, if Tokayev did refuse, then Moscow had no other choice but to deny that it was going to award him. What's more, Kazakhstan's president hasn't released any statements on the matter. From this point on, things only got worse. Russia has limited the shipment of oil from Kazakhstan through the port of Novorossiysk, while Kazakhstan has allegedly halted 1,700 railcars carrying Russian coal. Admittedly, these incidents have only added fuel to the fire.

Both Countries Are Trying To Use Oil and Coal as Leverage

While the Russian establishment was discussing what happened at the St. Petersburg Forum, it was reported that Russia had limited the transit of Kazakhstani oil through the port of Novorossiysk. The official reason for limiting oil shipments from Kazakhstan was World War II torpedoes and mines found on the seabed near the oil terminal. The pro-Western media hastily announced that the Kremlin attempted to retaliate in the light of Tokayev's recent "stunt," but on Monday, it was now Kazakhstan's turn to make excuses. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy announced that only two out of three single-point mooring buoys have been temporarily shut down due to the de-mining work on the Black Sea bed, and thus oil exports won't be significantly affected.

This news provoked a backlash from the media that within hours spread the news that Nur-Sultan had retaliated against Moscow by halting 1,700 railcars carrying Russian coal. It is possible that this news story was being prepared at the time of Tokayev's speech in St. Petersburg.

Once again, Kazakhstan had to explain itself. This time, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development stated that these news reports were aimed at discrediting Russia-Kazakhstan relations.

"These reports are simply not true. Kazakhstan hasn't halted 1,700 railcars with Russian coal. There are no Russian coal trains halted on their way to Kazakhstan or out of the republic," the ministry stated.

Moscow had no statement on the matter.

Washington Gives the Go-Ahead

Now let us proceed to the most important development in this chain of events. On Monday, Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry reported that it received a letter from Uzra Zeya, the U.S. Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights. The letter stated that Washington approved and supported Tokayev's reforms. It primarily focused on the 2022 Kazakh constitutional referendum, which was held on June 5.

Then why did the U.S. wait two weeks before expressing its "unconditional support" for democratic reforms in Kazakhstan? The answer is obvious: Washington was satisfied with Tokayev's recent speech in St. Petersburg, whereas the referendum was only an excuse to demonstrate that the U.S. supports Kazakhstan.

As usual, the U.S., the world’s guardian of democratic values, pledged to help Kazakhstan "as you embark on the difficult road of democratizing your government, building transparent and responsive institutions , and strengthening human rights protections, in coordination with an independent civil society."

"The United States strongly supports President Tokayev’s political modernization and human rights reform agendas, and in this regard, we welcome [the] June 5 referendum as the next step in this reform process," Zeya said in her letter.

We all know that there are plenty of countries that have been successfully "democratized" by the U.S., starting with Iraq and ending with Ukraine.

What Makes the US Act Now?

Given such a dramatic change in the rhetoric of the Kazakhstani authorities, who more or less support Russia but, at the same time, do not turn their backs on the U.S., we should mention one important point. A five-year plan for military cooperation between the Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan and the U.S. Department of Defense expires this year. It was five years ago that Washington brought in representatives of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Guard Bureau, U.S. Army, National Defense University and several defense research institutions to sign the agreement, which allowed the U.S. to arrange training of military personnel in a Central Asian country, conveniently located near Russia and China.

Isn't that a situation similar to the one that led to the Ukrainian conflict? Washington can't simply leave Kazakhstan. In this regard, twice in March and immediately after the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, representatives of the U.S. Department of State and the Department of Defense visited Almaty, where the peacekeeping training center is located.

The U.S. has now realized that its "pro-NATO Ukraine" project and the subsequent January attempt to “democratize” Kazakhstan have already failed. Better luck the second time? The time for the second attempt seems to have come.