As Prime Minister, Lapid Will Not Move without Permission from Biden

In facing a prime minister like Benjamin Netanyahu, the Biden administration faces conflict on many different levels. In contrast, dealing with a Lapid-Bennett government will mean full submission to the United States.

It’s not a coincidence. President Joe Biden is coming to visit in the coming weeks, and in honor of the event, Israel is changing prime ministers. It’s better to skip the political-sentimental nature of the media darling who was expected to become prime minister, and a dozen years after jumping into the political morass, he will serve as prime minister.

From a political, diplomatic and security perspective, the story belongs to the Americans. In dealing with a prime minister like Benjamin Netanyahu, the Biden administration faced conflict on many different levels. In contrast, dealing with a Lapid-Bennett government means full submission to the United States. A government headed by Yair Lapid, without any connection to the indecision over Iran and the nuclear agreement, means that Israel will not make any decision that does not align with America’s objectives.

Israel’s standing in the eyes of the Arab states, apparent partners in an anti-Iran coalition, is in decline. Of course, the Arab states will not take Israel seriously during the next four months before elections. The situation could possibly get worse if the anti-Likud and anti-nationalist coalition again succeeds in forming a government built on the shreds of both parties.

However, despite managing a branch of the Democratic Party in Israel, Lapid will not be able to take any significant steps in the Palestinian arena. There is no substitute for Bibi’s winning combination of political power and pragmatism, a willingness to stand up to the Americans and gain the trust of the Arabs.

Like the Negev summit, which set the stage to present the new kid on the block as an international statesman, so, too, will be Lapid’s meeting with the American president. The goal of the Americans and the left is to weaken the solid nationalist bloc by preventing the Likud and Netanyahu from ruling. This is the preferred path of the outgoing government, specifically the government led by Naftali Bennett. As prime minister, Bennett has divided the nationalist bloc and weakened its leadership, which remains bereft of a solid public political base. When Bennett goes, Lapid will remain, and the government will become leftist. However, it will be a leftist government without a base, one that cannot realize political goals, but primarily damages values, religion and the state.

There is a connection between Lapid’s rise as an ally of the Biden administration and the fact that Americans are clearly losing the trust of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Alongside the security conference scheduled in Jeddah, talks are expected to begin on the nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar. It will be difficult for the Saudis to give Biden what he wants. In short, the change of prime ministers, according to leaders such as Minister of Diaspora Affairs Nachman Shai, is linked to the personal relationship between Lapid and Bennett and political ethics. Bennett has run out of gas. Lapid deferred to Bennett and then Bennett gave Lapid the keys, at least for now. This is not a time-out; this is six months until elections plus weeks of government formation. The public will judge.