Hand-Waving*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Political analyst Vladimir Yevseev on the real and declarative results of the NATO summit.

The main outcomes of the NATO summit that concluded in Madrid included approval of the new Strategic Concept for the alliance’s development through 2030 and the beginning of the process for Sweden and Finland to join the organization.

For the first time in a Strategic Concept, NATO declared that Russia was the main threat to the security of the military-political bloc. Notably, this has happened before, but only now has the Strategic Concept officially included a formal declaration about Russia. Moreover, NATO accused Russia of seeking to “establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, aggression and annexation,” as if the U.S. and its allies have not been expanding their own sphere of influence since the collapse of the Soviet Union. NATO’s rapid expansion at the expense of the former Warsaw Pact countries clearly indicated this, and the criminal Kyiv regime is a good illustration of NATO’s methods, being as it is under the complete control of Washington. Nobody in the U.S. or NATO spoke about international law when they waged war against Yugoslavia in 1999, Iraq in 2003 or Libya in 2011.

At the same time, it has been noted that NATO is not looking to confront Russia and does not pose a threat to Moscow. Hence, the alliance expects to maintain communication channels with Russia to reduce risks and prevent escalation of the current crisis. In practice, this means that after the special military operation in Ukraine is over, NATO will try to avoid a military confrontation with the Russian army. However, during the special military operation, this risk still remains, especially if Poland occupies the so-called Galicia region, a historic area spanning today’s Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil regions of Ukraine, without Russian approval.

Simultaneously, NATO is set to continue its open-door policy aimed at European democracies “that are willing and able to assume the responsibilities and obligations of membership” in the military bloc. But seemingly, nobody is asking the local population about this. This is confirmed by the absence of appropriate referenda in Sweden and Finland. In fact, such momentous decisions are being made in private by the pro-American ruling elite and justified by dubious opinion polls using information from the U.S. and British-controlled local media.

In addition, the NATO countries have agreed to increase the size of the alliance’s rapid reaction force on the eastern flank — that is, in relative proximity to the Russian border — to 300,000 troops. This will require appropriate infrastructure, including the deployment of storage sites for weapons, ammunition, combustive-lubricating materials and other facilities necessary for combat operations. However, the sources of such large-scale financing are unclear.

As expected, the NATO summit approved a new aid package for Ukraine. It includes accelerated deliveries of non-lethal equipment, enhanced cybersecurity capabilities and modernization of the defense industry. By non-lethal equipment, NATO apparently means supplies of American M777 howitzers, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, and other equipment the Ukrainian army is using to kill civilians in Donbass.

It would be interesting to know which defense industry facilities in Ukraine are to be modernized. Maybe it will include facilities in Kharkiv, which Russian troops may soon encircle entirely. Or those in Kyiv or Lviv, where Russian high-precision weapons have already destroyed the tank-repair plants. But why modernize such facilities in light of the rapid reduction of Soviet-era armored vehicles and the declining morale of the Ukrainian army? On the whole, Kyiv was disappointed with the outcome of the NATO summit, especially considering the composition and quantity of weapons supplied by the West. And disappointment will only grow as the Ukrainian army units in Donbass are defeated.

At the heads of state meeting at the sixth Caspian Sea summit in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, Vladimir Putin said that NATO’s preparations for confrontation with Russia are not news to Moscow and have been underway since 2014. That, he argued, explains Russia’s decisive action to protect its own interests in Ukraine. According to the president, NATO is a remnant of the Cold War. Nevertheless, suppose that NATO’s military infrastructure is deployed in Finland and Sweden. In that case, Russia will have to respond to that threat proportionally, tit-for-tat.

The Russian Defense Ministry has already stated that it will create 12 new military units in the Western Military District of Russia by the end of 2022. It could not be otherwise, since the intensity of U.S. strategic aviation flights in Europe has increased fifteenfold. Meanwhile, the presence of U.S. warships in the Baltic Sea has become commonplace. At the same time, Russian troops stationed in the Western Military District will receive more than 2,000 units of modern weapons and military equipment in 2022. According to the winter training period results, the level of training of the District’s formations grew by 25% compared to 2021. The intensity of combat training tasks performed by the Baltic Fleet’s ships increased by 42%. They carried out more than 300 combat exercises using different kinds of weapons. The District’s air force also increased the number of air raids.

Thus, the outcome of the NATO summit in Madrid was unsurprising. It confirmed America’s high degree of control over Europe and Turkey. Nevertheless, the documents signed at the summit and even NATO’s expansion do not indicate NATO is getting stronger. Many actions, such as those relative to Ukraine, are mere gestures. But if military threats to Russia increase, it will have to respond proportionally. Therefore, it is doubtful that NATO’s actions will contribute to the alliance’s security as a whole.

The author holds a doctorate in technical sciences and is the head of the Eurasian Integration and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Department at the Institute of CIS Countries. The author’s position may not necessarily reflect the views of Izvestia’s editorial board.