Is Biden Working on an Election Surprise?

The trend favoring Republicans seems to be faltering while the Democrats reap good news.

There is a sense that the wind seems to have changed direction in recent weeks. The Republicans have strutted around for months, confident that, in November, they will take the House of Representatives from the Democrats and, possibly, even the Senate.

They’ve already imagined themselves taking on a lame duck Democratic president with no congressional support during the second half of his term.

Some were already salivating at the thought of launching formal impeachment proceedings against a breathless, weakened, and very unpopular Joe Biden. Whatever the reason, the most vocal and extreme Republicans — like Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, and Marjorie Taylor Greene — would handle it.

After all, it’s only fair. The Democrats tried twice to topple Donald Trump with impeachment trials that were destined to fail, as Republican senators were going to vote not guilty regardless of the evidence thanks to partisanship in the extreme.

But today, 70 days before the midterm elections, the Democrats can afford to be much more optimistic. They can imagine limiting the damage in the House by retaining control, even if just barely, and, according to some of the stronger polls in crucial races, could increase the number of Senate seats. Why not? “The red wave looks more like a red ripple,” the non-partisan Cook Political Report recently noted, referring to the Republican tidal wave that was guaranteed just a few months ago.

From a Comfortable Republican Lead to a Worrying Decline

Republicans have only one group to blame for their decline: themselves. The Trumpists and Republicans completely devoted to the former president’s cause out of conviction or out of fear have all focused on access to abortion, believing it would establish their superiority on such a polarizing issue; on Trump’s celebrity as he raises even more eyebrows since the FBI raided his residence; and on voter unhappiness about inflation and the price of gas, a major issue in a country of drivers that tends to calm down when prices drop.

Above all, the Republicans have forgotten one fundamental thing: They only represent a segment of American voters. They forget that independents were among those who voted for Trump in 2016. These Americans, who hate having a political affiliation stuck to their backs, can go either way from one election to the next. And this bloc, which represents around 40% of voters, is beginning to tire of the decisions and impact of Republican filibusters in Congress.

Trump, who endorsed a majority of the candidates who sided with the camp that believes his lie about a stolen election, is proving very influential ahead of the midterm elections. But all of this is turning into a referendum about Trump’s personality and the hold he exerts on the party. His people boast that “the Republican Party is the party of Trump.”

That could be, but it is turning against him.

“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed and we will deserve it,” Sen. Lindsey Graham declared in May 2016 while running against him for the Republican presidential nomination. It is a remark some of his opponents like to bring up again and again.

More Spirited Democrats

Meanwhile, the Democrats, who are typically not very good at selling themselves when it comes time to tout their achievements, are going on the offensive. Biden, buoyed by positive numbers, recently addressed his supporters and Democratic donors, presenting the upcoming election as a referendum on abortion access, firearm safety, affordable prescription drugs, the preservation of democracy, and “the very survival of our planet.”

The theme of the Democratic midterm campaign is that these are all issues Republicans have blocked legislation on, notably in Congress. Democrats contend the Republicans are extreme people doing nothing concrete for you while the Democrats have fulfilled their promises and are taking action on the ground.

And while Biden roundly criticizes the Republicans, the official White House Twitter team indulged in mocking Republican lawmakers who laid into Biden’s proposal to cancel student loans. In response to the attacks, the president’s social media team put Republicans back in their place by referencing the hundreds of thousands, even millions, of dollars they received when the federal government canceled loans as part of a stimulus program during the pandemic. In short, blue is on the attack against red.

A Democratic Base Surprisingly Mobilized

Democratic supporters generally tend to shun their party in elections outside the presidential cycle, especially the midterms. Often frustrated or unsatisfied with the performance of those they elected, they opt to stay home to punish them. However, this time, participation numbers from recent Democratic special and primary elections show otherwise.

In the four special House elections, including New York’s 19th District where the candidate centered his campaign on abortion, the Democrats outperformed Biden’s results in 2020.

Of course, Biden remains unpopular in the polls, but while his approval rating was only 37.5% in July, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s ratings stand at 42.3% today. It is the beginning of a trend among the 53.5% of respondents who are dissatisfied with the president.

70 Days To Reverse the Trend

Can the Republicans reverse this trend? The answer may come around Labor Day when poll numbers are released that will set the tone for the midterm elections. Traditionally, the numbers held by the parties at that point are often the same as on election night.

If polls confirm a Democratic rebound, it might break the mold of midterm elections, often unfavorable to the sitting president, and do so to everyone’s surprise.

This midterms may be quite thrilling for some and devastating for others. Somewhere in Florida, there is one person who needs to start asking questions.