A Security Belt To Deal with China

Two globalized economies are emerging: that of Western allies and another as a result of the Beijing-Moscow axis.

The security pact signed by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, known as AUKUS, bolsters the arguments of those who believe the rivalry between Beijing and Washington will inevitably lead to another cold war, while leaving untenable hopes for a cold peace — the main characteristic of which would be to ensure that the rivalry between the superpowers never endangers the flow of business at the heart of the global economy. Given that Australia will be equipped with five nuclear submarines by 2030 as part of a $120 billion program to exchange resources and technology, there is little left to do aside from buckling our seat belts in facing China and South Korea in Southeast Asia. The scene is coalescing around three hotspots of activity for Beijing: Taiwan, which is threatening self-annexation; the South China Sea, which China is demanding strategic control of; and the straits connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans, vital for energy transportation and many other markets.

The “Anglosphere” has positioned itself to specifically pursue containment regarding China as it detaches from Europe and supports war operations in Ukraine. The Chinese government is increasingly sending signs of sympathy for Russia’s reckless invasion while publicly professing neutrality. AUKUS also came about because of Brexit, which has given free rein to the Conservative government in London to decide how best to manage the complexity of the relationship with China and to access the new Silk Road, which Xi Jinping has developed to preserve his relationship with the EU, the chief receptor market for Chinese exports.

The disgust shown by the Chinese government — which blames the new pact on increased militarization in the Pacific Rim, violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the heightened risk of an escalation — was so predictable that it suggests, save mitigation by the uproar, the globalized economy is at serious risk. This is not only because commercial transactions need an atmosphere of trust across the board, but also because a neo-protectionism is gaining traction that would see the emergence of two new globalized economies: that of the Western allies and another as a result of the China-Russia axis, with a great expansion of power in the Global South. This is raising pressing concerns regarding the effect that this kind of blueprint might have on a domain such as new technologies, where China and Taiwan are chief actors.

The emerging new cold war has given rise to many new research drives for think tanks. Leading them is a framework for the next generation where China is no longer the power attached to a staunch defense of the “status quo” and the United States sees its role as uncontested arbitrator under threat. Within this framework, on the road to global hegemony, technological and military competency will have equal status.