The Unsinkable Donald*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Americanist Igor Istomin — on the popularity of Trumpism in the U.S. and the rivalry between the former president and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

On June 16, 2015, a billionaire with a controversial reputation descended a golden escalator to the lobby of a New York skyscraper and announced that he was running for president of the U.S. Since then, U.S. policy has turned into a perpetual “Stop Donald Trump!” show. Many have tried. Most have been unsuccessful.

In 2020, Joe Biden, relying on the entire might of the Washington establishment (including the Republicans), even managed to outplay Trump; however, against all expectations, Trump didn’t disappear from the public horizon. To the contrary, the political amateur showed miraculous endurance, taking blows that, before him, sank careers of tested statesmen.

The U.S. 2022 midterm elections seemingly exposed the sunset of Trumpism. The majority of candidates endorsed by the former president failed, and Republican expectations for a Senate majority crumbled. Nonetheless, half a year later, Trump is again at the top in the Republican presidential race, and with a hefty lead to boot.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is a new contender in the challenge to an unsinkable Trump, who earlier facilitated the roaring start of DeSantis’ political career. In turn, DeSantis declared his steadfast commitment to Trumpism from 2017 to 2020.

As governor, he established himself as an ardent opponent of COVID restrictions, earning the support of conservative audiences that are fighting for the expansion of state regulation. Thanks to his vociferous opposition to the direction of the federal government, DeSantis gained national fame, which he has only solidified during Biden’s term.

As a result, the influential sector of the Republican establishment decided to put DeSantis forward as the most promising alternative to the former president. Besides, the Florida governor managed to gain the support of the most public billionaire of modern times, Elon Musk. Musk gave DeSantis a platform on Twitter (blocked in Russia by Roskomnadzor), the social network that he owns, to launch his presidential campaign.

The Republican elite’s bet on DeSantis forced them to accept the political platform of Trumpism. Moreover, during the start of his campaign, the Florida governor took an even more radical position than Trump did. In particular, DeSantis criticized the former president for not being harsh enough on matters of immigration and appeared to be a more consistent opponent of abortion.

In general, DeSantis presents himself as an improved version of Trump, more competent and predictable. His supporters count on drawing the support of those who share the ideas of the former president but became disillusioned with his personal characteristics. They also present DeSantis as a more practical candidate in national elections where victory depends not just on the loyalty of the Republican base but also on drawing in moderate voters.

Despite all these arguments, DeSantis continues to lag significantly behind Trump by about 30%, according to the latest polls. More than half of all Republicans are currently ready to vote for Trump. Technical issues during an internet broadcast that launched DeSantis’ campaign became a topic of popular discussion, which didn’t contribute well to his popularity.

At the same time, the race for the Republican Party nomination for president is a marathon that has only just begun. The first TV debate between candidates is scheduled for Aug. 23, while the first state primary (Iowa goes first) will not take place until January 2024.

And only then does the primary season begin, and will end with the party’s nomination of a presidential candidate. There have been cases in which the candidate was nominated directly at the party convention as part of U.S. election procedure, but the convention is still more than a year away. Quite often, the initial favorite in the race has lost in the end. So we shouldn’t write DeSantis off at all.

History shows that despite how much the “talking heads” wish to bet on Trump or his challenger, it’s still too early for any reasonable predictions about the result of the campaign. For now, both DeSantis and the other participants in the Republican race play from inherently weaker positions.

They continue to react, focusing on their opposition to Trump. None of them has yet proposed their own platform to ignite the Republican electorate and lead it out of the shadow of the former president. For now they still play the “Stop Donald Trump” game, and, consequently, he remains the central figure in U.S. politics. That doesn’t mean that he will definitely win the primaries, but victory or defeat in this race depends mainly on him, and not on his challengers.