Biden Lays Down the Law

Even after the war is over, the American president is only promising Ukraine shipment of arms. That is sensible, because the strategic situation has to be clear before Ukraine can be accepted into NATO.

It has been clear for a while that, at the NATO summit this week, Ukraine would not receive a concrete invitation to join the alliance. But it did sound something like a command when, shortly before the beginning of the meeting in Vilnius, President Joe Biden again made clear how he felt about the demands coming especially from Kyiv and Eastern European allies. Ukraine will not become a member as long as the war continues, and after the war ends, it can initially expect only weapon deliveries.

That’s called the Israel Model, since that country is (hugely) supported by the U.S. with military aid but does not have a guarantee of mutual protection like that provided by Article 5 of the NATO agreement.

Democratization as a Prerequisite

Biden’s course of action is rational, as it often has been in this crisis. He correctly notes that Ukraine’s joining during the war would mean that NATO would have to fight against Russia. No one can seriously want that to happen.

More surprising, however, is the clarity with which he named other prerequisites for membership, including Ukraine’s democratization. So, even if Ukraine is exempt from having to prepare a formal Membership Action Plan at the summit, the move would not mean that much.

But even on this point, it’s important to keep one’s cool. The decision about Ukraine’s membership is so consequential that it shouldn’t be made without knowing precisely what the political and military map of Europe looks like when the war ends or there is at least a cease-fire. That concerns the Russia’s situation as much as Ukraine’s.

Another strategically important question is Sweden’s acceptance into the alliance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s demand to resume negotiations over Turkey joining the EU mixes up two issues that have nothing to do with each other and was a transparent attempt to extract the greatest possible gain. It would be good if this extortion finally came to an end.