The US in 2024: It Is Going To End Badly

This year, the American news cycle will be dominated by Donald Trump’s legal saga and the presidential campaigns. If there are reasons to be optimistic, there is also cause to fear the worst.

Given the overwhelming evidence against Donald Trump, normally, the outcome of his legal troubles would be easily predictable, along with the election results.

Normally, the year could end happily, like in the movies. But there is little in American politics that is normal anymore.

Normally …

Trump’s legal calendar is jam-packed. There are new developments every day from the four criminal trials, civil trials, or requests for the disqualification of his candidacy under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution.

Criminally, there is little doubt that Trump committed the acts he is accused of — his own lawyers do not dispute that. Rather, they argue, in essence, that he had the right to commit them. Trump is looking to push his trials back as far as possible to bury them should he win the presidency.

Normally, in an economic context favorable to a president, an opponent burdened with legal proceedings would have no chance. But can we really count on normality?

Nothing Normal?

In 2020, there was nothing to suggest a “normal” election. And yet, voters predictably aligned themselves according to conventional factors such as approval ratings and economic conditions.

In 2024, robust economic indicators, a term filled with major bipartisan accomplishments — like the emergence from the pandemic crisis and massive investment in infrastructure — and a rival in the dock should favor Joe Biden.

Nevertheless, subjective perceptions about the economy remain gloomy, and Biden’s age remains a disadvantage, even though Trump is neither much younger than Biden nor physically or mentally healthier.

Most importantly, if the campaigns do unfold “normally,” the media will endeavor to find faults with Biden to “balance out” the avalanche of damaging revelations regarding Trump.

No Happy Ending

It would be surprising to see a conclusive end to Trump’s legal troubles before the election. The trials will stretch out, and the benefit of the doubt will persist. The attack Tuesday on the Colorado Supreme Court is a reminder that violence can erupt at any time against prosecutors, judges, witnesses and jury members targeted by Trump.

As for the election, a coin toss would do just as well as any expert analysis to predict the outcome. Whatever it is, there will be damage.

If Biden wins, Trump will almost certainly contest the result and set off a violent reaction that will make Jan. 6, 2021, look like a picnic.

In the reverse scenario, it is no less certain that this would trigger the large-scale protests Trump has already promised to forcibly suppress by issuing a state of emergency that would give him considerable powers to realize his plans for vengeance and put in place a regime inspired by the authoritarian dictators, past and present, he unreservedly admires.