Nikki Haley had a respectable result in New Hampshire. But, despite ideal conditions, it was only good enough for second place. The Republican presidential candidacy can no longer be taken away from Donald Trump.
In the dark of night, even a flickering light in a window can seem like a glimmer of hope. But outside, it is still dark.
It is a similar situation with the Republican primaries: Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, did better than expected in New Hampshire. But, ultimately, even this respectable result merely cements the conclusion of the Iowa caucuses from a week ago: Donald Trump rules the Republican Party. He has no serious competition and will become its presidential candidate.
A Difficult Dry Spell Lies Ahead of Haley
After finishing in third place in Iowa, Haley once again missed out on victory in a duel that was reduced to two candidates. Her performance with more than 40% is impressive, but it is partly due to a special situation in the New England state in which non-party-affiliated, independent voters are also allowed to participate in the Republican nomination process. In addition, the population here is more educated and wealthier than the U.S. average. So, the conditions here were ideal for a more traditionally conservative candidate without the aggressive outbursts and authoritarian fever dreams which are characteristic of Trump.
Looked at in this way, as a runner-up with a clear gap between her and Trump, the Great Disruptor is still disappointing — especially since she now faces a difficult dry spell. Haley won’t even be listed on the ballot in the Nevada primaries in two weeks’ time. In the subsequent round in her home state of South Carolina, Haley is more than 30 points behind Trump in the polls. Haley is a mock giantess. The threat of a humiliating defeat in the state in which she was once governor is likely to be the final blow to her campaign.
Déjà Vu in November
Meanwhile, Trump can boast of a further victory. Never has a candidate who was ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire not won the nomination in the end. The former president could have the majority of delegate votes as early as mid-March. Bootlickers and opportunists from all corners of the Republican Party are rallying around him. The governor and both senators in South Carolina have defected to Trump. It’s becoming lonely for Haley.
This means Americans are facing a case of déjà vu come November — a new edition of Joe Biden versus Trump. Despite all the fundamental character and political differences between the two men, the outlook is grim for the U.S. and its democracy. The two politicians are around 80 years old, both are unpopular, and neither offers much hope. Six out of 10 Americans are unhappy about the looming alternative.
Nevertheless, Democratic strategists are able to take something good away from the Trump candidacy. They are convinced that Biden can win against Trump more easily than against any other candidate because Trump’s extreme personality, chaos and contempt for democracy repel more moderate swing voters.
Democrats Must Go on the Offensive
It worked once, but for a while now, things have been developing differently than expected. Despite his criminal prosecutions with a total of 91 charges, Trump’s poll numbers are rising, while Biden’s numbers are falling, even given the billion-dollar infrastructure and climate packages along with a good labor market. Furthermore, despite being close in age, Trump’s unbridled thirst for power makes him look more powerful than the fragile Biden.
Democrats need to do everything they can to finally go on the offensive. They need to sell their policies better and bring in much younger and popular supporters for the president. Low profile Vice President Kamala Harris is of no help here. And finally, the party must prepare for a worst-case scenario, in case Biden’s numbers fall even lower in the coming months, or his health declines.
The election in November is about nothing less than the preservation of American democracy. Everything must now be subordinated to the goal of preventing the would-be dictator Trump from returning to the White House. The course of the Republican primaries makes it shockingly clear: No help can be expected from the “Grand Old Party,” which has degenerated into a cult.
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