While US-China Disputes Are Difficult To Resolve, Taiwan Steadily Moves Ahead

After intense and frequent interaction and communication, has the competition between the U.S. and China eased and the relationship really improved? The answer remains to be seen. Technological and economic competition between the two countries is like volcanic lava below ground, the scalding magma frequently erupting from the pressure. The struggle to dominate alliances in the Asian-Pacific region is like the shifting of tectonic plates, in danger of misaligning periodically, with destructive consequences. The most frightening thing in this relationship is the possibility of nuclear war and the competing value systems. The “assured mutual destruction” of nuclear war would destroy everything indiscriminately, while the competing value systems can affect the world like global warming or an ice age: The difference between success or failure can impact the entire globe and even change its livability.

Taiwan was originally a small variable in the relationship between the U.S. and China. However, China claims that having Taiwan is in its interest and is destiny, while the U.S. recognizes that Taiwan helps uphold global order and showcases and drives key technologies and democratic values. The triangular relationship between the U.S., China and Taiwan can be said to be the product of the Yalta Conference and was further defined during the Korean War. Now, it is the most valuable thing for the U.S. and China. Taiwan’s existence is like living on a fault line, where every shift is related to the ups and downs between the U.S. and China. Therefore, the study of Taiwan is required in U.S.-China negotiations. In a recent call with Xi Jinping, Joe Biden repeatedly stressed peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, as he did in talks with Fumio Kishida. Beijing has always said the U.S. should honor a One-China policy and now is going further by demanding the U.S. take steps to “oppose Taiwanese independence.” The role Taiwan plays and the pressure it is under seems to be growing daily. In reality, the tumult surging between the U.S. and China might result in a more solid and stable position for Taiwan.

Last week, The Economist issued rare criticism about Xi Jinping, and was spot-on in pointing out that he is superstitious about a technological utopia, centralized state power and security. His attempts to revitalize China through these and upturn the world order will eventually anger the rest of the globe and lead to failure. Xi is confident that a “new quality productive force” strategy can lead China out of its current predicament; instead, this will further drag down China’s faltering economy. This week, the quarterly publication Foreign Affairs published “No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed,” in which the authors point out that America’s historical strategy of “deterrence” has failed. Currently, the Biden administration’s mistake in competing with China is the goal of “managing,” focusing on managing and forgetting that the goal is winning. Instead, it should copy President Ronald Reagan’s strategy for winning the Cold War. If the U.S. doesn’t go beyond dialoguing and managing, it will be defeated in future information and propaganda wars and by weaponized supply chains.

American political and academic circles are already dissatisfied with the ambiguous détente and joint administration. Voices calling for a showdown in a second or new Cold War might become mainstream. This is the new terrain we Taiwanese must face. In a new Cold War, defending Taiwan is the starting point in defending the world order — the road we must take to safeguard a value system of democracy and freedom. Therefore, the U.S. must greatly increase military spending in East Asia, provide allies and Taiwan with advanced precision weapons, build and deploy advanced military equipment and establish a close trade agreement with Taiwan. This is America’s goal and responsibility toward Taiwan’s survival and development. To ensure long-term dominance, the U.S. should decouple technologically and financially from China, raise a new generation of talent and rouse the determination of its people to prepare for a war.

The issue has been made more complex by the U.S. and China’s difficult relationship. Professor Graham Allison, who proposed the “Thucydides” competitive U.S.-China relationship, recently explained that China is the largest greenhouse-gas-producing country and the largest systematic long-term competitor to the U.S. with the second-largest economy. Thus, although they are competitors, they are also like conjoined twins. This kind of friend-foe relationship is complex. Both sides must prevent misunderstandings, miscalculations and misjudgments from expanding, to avoid repeating history through war. In the face of China’s desire to dominate Asia and the world, we can only cooperate with competitors to the greatest extent, keeping national survival as the bottom line. This is the strategic goal and wisdom of the U.S. and is also the guarantee for Taiwan’s survival and development. It is also our unavoidable responsibility and problem.

The author is a researcher at the Taiwan Brain Trust and a member of the Taiwan Association of University Professors.