Donald Trump seems to be well-positioned to become president of the United States once again despite past controversies, as he takes advantage of the perceived weaknesses in the Biden administration and current geopolitical challenges, says Sébastien Boussois.
We either like Donald Trump or we don’t. But at this point, is that really still the question? And what’s the point? Geopolitics is not a wish list, but a mix of lessons about the past and anticipating the near future.
And in 2020, there were few who bet that the former president would make a remarkable return to the White House. Among political leaders, analysts and journalists, few imagined that after four years, Trump would once again become president to all Americans, regardless of the scandals that he brings with him, perhaps even before November.
It must be said that the events of Jan. 6, 2021, the invasion of the Capitol and the multiple cases that stick to him could or should have been a serious obstacle on Trump’s path to regaining power, and should have damaged his popularity ratings somewhat. So far, that has not been the case.
Faced with a fatigued, sometimes incoherent, confused President Joe Biden, whose track record is decidedly mixed, Republican candidate Trump is well on his way in fighting for the position he had such a difficult time leaving, as he continues to continuing to sell the story that his 2020 victory was stolen to both his supporters and to the rest of the world. He is equally determined to undermine American democracy and take revenge on all those who have thrown a wrench in his gears in recent years.
During Trump’s Term, a ‘Relative’ Calm Ruled the Planet
It is true that during Trump’s term, a “relative” calm ruled the planet, and that Biden’s election, with his lack of leadership and poor representation of authority, has surely eased the minds of certain warmongers in the new global world. Trump scares authoritarian leaders, which is an asset, and paradoxically, he plays to appease the world.
In reality, it is the United States admitting weakness that has been the main driving force behind the world’s disinclination to rise against the West. China has taken the opportunity to greatly advance its stakes in the entire Global South. Barack Obama’s weakness in Syria during his administration, as well as the failed withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan under Biden, have undermined American credibility and its all-powerful image.
Populist leaders have jumped into the fray. The reality is that we no longer want anything to do with the U.S., but in terms of the planet’s equilibrium, we can hardly do without it.
Trump Promises the Return of a Powerful America
Trump constantly promises the return of a powerful America as leverage in an aimless West heading in all directions. “Make America Great Again” was coined to signal the return of United States power, for Americans above all, but also — without Trumpian pretentiousness — for the interest of the entire world. Trump dislikes war; it is bad for business. People fear (and perhaps thus respect) Trump for his erratic behavior and unpredictability.
It is a safe bet that Vladimir Putin would not have waged his war had Trump been in the White House. The planet is on fire, and Americans under Biden seem powerless to contain not only the accelerating de-Westernization of the world, but also the rise of power in the Global South, which is now exploding onto the world stage like never before.
Once in office, Trump wants to regulate conflict after conflict in two stages. Whether he addresses Ukraine, North Korea, Gaza or the sensitive issue of China and Taiwan, Trump will labor without regard for nuance and he will be driven by pure madness.
Rather than stoke tension, the Republican candidate likes to engage directly with refractory leaders like Putin, Kim Jong Un, Benjamin Netanyahu, and even Xi Jinping.
There Is a Path for the Former President, Ready To Fight Like Never Before
We know how close Trump is to the leader of the Kremlin, and we know that Trump has promised to put an end to American engagement with NATO if he is reelected. The death of NATO would certainly be a blessed gift to Putin and would probably put an end to the war in Ukraine — at least in part, perhaps.
But Europe could then finally seize the opportunity to guarantee its security on its own and on a grand scale, rather than lecturing the entire world on the urgent need for the right to sovereignty and territorial integrity of all, couldn’t it?
None of the Republican presidential candidates withstood the Trumpist bulldozer and its supporters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has given up; Nikki Haley, Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations, was credited with just over 10% of the vote before her final implosion in South Carolina.
Now, there is a path for the former president, who is ready to fight like never before, as he faces Biden and a Democratic house that is more derelict than ever. The best way forward is to reelect Trump, who could also avert the premature predictions of chaos.
Sébastien Boussois is a Doctor of Political Sciences, a researcher in the Arabic and geopolitical world, a teacher of International Relations at the Higher Education Institute of Social Communication Studies (Brussels), and a scientific collaborator at the CNAM Paris (security defense team), the Nordic Center for Conflict Transformation in Stockholm and the Strategic Observatory in Geneva.
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