The proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza will only be successful if the question about the future of the Gaza Strip and Hamas is answered.
The proposal by U.S. President Joe Biden for a roadmap to a cease-fire in Gaza will only be successful if international pressure increases on the Israeli government and on Hamas. But it would likely be more important to eliminate weaknesses in the proposal to get Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the Hamas leadership to even discuss it seriously.
A successful roadmap must answer the question of what happens to Gaza and especially to Hamas going forward. If Hamas is to be allowed to save face by being involved in the future of the Gaza Strip, it must renounce its goal to eliminate Israel and be disarmed. There is also the related question of whether international defensive forces can be mustered to oversee the cease-fire and guarantee that Hamas does not de facto return to power in Gaza. No country will send troops to Gaza if there are fears that Hamas will continue to fight underground.
Netanyahu will only be able to agree to Hamas having a political future if attacks like the one on Oct. 7 are out of the question and all hostages are freed. If these questions are left unresolved, neither Israel nor Hamas will give in.
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