The Push Biden Needs

Despite a recent felony conviction by a New York jury, President Donald Trump is running a very tight race with Joe Biden, according to the polls. And despite his precedent- setting conviction, the two are neck-and-neck with voters.

The chance that a third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., might make it onto the ballot in this year’s key states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is adding uncertainty to the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Ironically, those same polls show that a majority of Americans want someone other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump to run, leading some observers to brand a segment of the voters as “double haters,” those who dislike both candidates, only adding further to how unpredictable the polls are.

In light of the data, the June 27 debate between Biden and Trump is all the more important as the majority of polls show Trump leading in five of the six key states mentioned above. This presidential debate is historic in that it is being held earlier in the campaign process than ever before, even before the Democratic and Republican Parties have nominated their candidates. Republicans will formally nominate Trump in July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while the Democrats are expected to nominate Biden in August in Chicago, Illinois.*

The Impact of Immigration and Democracy

It is understood that, for the most part, the economy remains the area of greatest concern for voters. Biden has a very respectable record on job creation, the development of the manufacturing sector and growth. Simply put, the U.S. is currently the best performing of the G7 economies.

That said, polls show that the Biden administration’s disapproval rating is north of 50%, and this despite the recent drop in inflation.

We can predict that immigration and the state of democracy in America will dominate the debate and produce plenty of fireworks.

Trump sees immigration as a menace to the stability of the country’s population. He talks of exclusion, deportation and “poisoning of blood” of America as a result of illegal immigration.

Trump’s approach contrasts with Biden’s vision and that of the Democrats. Biden recently caused a stir within his party by advancing policies similar to Trump’s on security. But last week, with the objective of showing sensitivity to humanitarian concerns, Biden announced a program granting amnesty to immigrants without documentation who are married to American citizens for more than 10 years, opting for a more thoughtful and balanced approach.

Regarding democracy, one can expect Biden to wage an all-out attack on Trump’s involvement in the events of Jan. 6, 2021, his recent comments about retribution, about prosecuting his opponents and his admiration of autocrats like Vladimir Putin. But it is equally likely that each candidate will accuse the other of being a threat to American democracy.

Winning the Debate

Without a doubt, if there is a winner in this debate, one can predict it will have a fairly direct impact on the tenor of the campaign and the polls.

All indications are that the rules of this debate favor Biden’s style as there will be no audience in the room, the time for the exchanges will be limited and defined and the opponent’s microphone will be turned off when a candidate has the floor.

Nevertheless, given Trump’s nature, he will do everything to capture attention and unsettle his opponent.

Whatever the result of this presidential campaign, the winner will be the oldest candidate in history to be elected presidency. You can expect that questions about Biden and Trump’s age will factor into how people evaluate the debate.

Accounting for current polling and concerns among Democratic strategists, Biden must have a solid performance. Often under-estimated during his career, he could outwit his critics’ calculations and pull off a tour de force.

Biden will have to effectively explain his record, highlight his strength of character, clearly demonstrate what distinguishes him from Trump’s positions and present a promising vision for the future. In short, he has no choice: He absolutely needs to give a strong push to move the needle in the polls.

*Editor’s note: The presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump took place on June 27 after this article was published. The editors believe the author’s perspective remains relevant.