Populists, Populists, Populists

The possible reality of North America being governed by populist leaders poses potential challenges for trilateral cooperation

Sometimes it is hard to resist the temptation to speculate, and the current moment in North America is one of those. A couple of weeks ago, the United States and Canada held a summit, shortly after Claudia Sheinbaum was elected president of Mexico, boosted by still-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Attendees at the U.S.-Canada meeting faced what geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group called “a possible new reality: What if all of North America were governed by populists?” It is a possibility that is not entirely out of place.*

Right off the bat, for example, Sheinbaum is expected to follow in the populist footsteps of her predecessor. She herself has said that she will continue AMLO’s work, or what she calls “the second floor” of the 4T (Fourth Transformation). In the United States, although there are still months, and many twists and turns to go, before what is expected to be a close election, Donald Trump has a good chance of winning the White House.

In Canada, Pierre Poilievre, who rose to the leadership of the Conservative Party as the champion of a truckers’ strike that occupied Ottawa in January 2022, has a lead in the polls ahead of the October 2025 federal election. True, it is a long time away, more than a year, and that, in politics, is an eternity. Furthermore, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is as battle-hardened as Poilievre. But for the time being, some of the Canadian premier’s political proposals, such as the partial decriminalization of certain drugs, have had negative results that have been reflected in the popularity of the president, whom his conservative adversary did not hesitate to publicly describe as a “wacko.”

In the United States, it is believed that a second Trump term will intensify the far-right populist policies seen in 2016. Last week he visited Capitol Hill, the seat of the U.S. Congress, for the first time since Jan. 6, 2021, to discuss a possible legislative agenda for 2025 and to continue pushing. On Jan. 6, 2021, thousands of Trump supporters occupied the U.S. Congress building to try to prevent Democrat Joe Biden from being certified as the winner of the Nov. 5, 2020 election.

Trump has floated the idea of imposing an “all tariff policy” that would allow the U.S. to eliminate income tax, a move that is rhetorical today but would make life difficult for Sheinbaum and (possibly) Poilievre when they come to the table to examine the trilateral trade agreement (United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement) in 2026. In the past, during the Trump administration (2016-2020), the heads of government of Canada and Mexico made common cause to convince the American to keep limits on its demands. No one is sure if there would be community or not of the parties.

*Editor’s Note: Though accurately translated, this quote could not be independently verified.