Orange Hazard Level*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Political analyst Alexander Vedrussov — on why we still shouldn’t expect anything positive from America after the second coming of Trump.

What a biography they are writing for our redhead! Call me a cynic, but this is practically the first thing that comes to mind when I try to evaluate impartially the drama of the assassination attempt on the 45th — and, it would seem, the 47th — president of the U.S. The last time someone shot a president was in 1981. That assassination attempt also failed, and Ronald Reagan, the 40th president, had not only survived but also crushed his Democratic Party opponent in the election. Walter Mondale won only one state — his native Minnesota.

Forty years later, the political situation and the general election in the U.S. are much more dramatic. Even before the historic shots rang out in Pennsylvania, the incumbent president was falling apart after a disastrous debate with his Republican opponent. Joe Biden’s ratings in the states that are key to winning the election began to slide.

There was genuine panic among the Democrats. Now the Democrats not only face losing the White House but also a rout in Congress, which would strip the donkey party of both executive and legislative power. All this — on top of the fact that Donald managed to appoint a full third of the Supreme Court justices. Altogether, this could mean that the Democrats could lose essential levers of influence in making key decisions.

Of course, the “donkeys” would still retain significant influence. After all, there’s always the deep state. But even so, the Democratic Party and its supporters may face serious problems. Although Trump has publicly distanced himself from Project 2025, a widely discussed plan in the political community, the fact that the Republican-aligned Heritage Foundation announced they would effect a grand purge of the civil service with the change of presidents has caused hysterics in the Washington swamp.

No matter how you look at it, it’s a stalemate. There was an urgent need to deal with Trump. Nothing worked — supporting his challengers during the Republican primaries, countless court hearings, endless bad PR in the mainstream media. It began to look like nothing could deter the stubborn politician from inevitably winning the grudge match. Against the background of the daunting physical and mental state of his Democratic Party opponent, who has just enough strength left to clutch his presidential seat, Trump looked preferable and continued his strong-headed march to victory on Nov. 5.

Then the shots rang out in Pennsylvania. If the trajectory of the lone shooter’s bullet had been slightly different, it would have radically fulfilled the task of de-Trumpization of the American political field. Trump had not yet announced his vice presidential running mate, which meant that the GOP establishment could slip anyone in at its party’s convention. Even the devil himself, or worse, the Republican version of Hillary Clinton, Nikki Haley. That would have shut up all the dissatisfied, including Trump’s family and his most fervent supporters. Enough playing democracy!

But the bullets flew as they did. Instead of de-Trumpizing American policy, we not only got the superhero-esque photo of old man Donald with his epic and defiant raised fist, but also the legitimization of his possible successor at the Republican National Convention. After surviving the assassination attempt, Trump’s stock increased to such an extent that the candidate favored to win in November chose 39-year-old J.D. Vance as his vice presidential running mate over any politically correct DEI [Diversity, Equity, Inclusion] candidate. A straight white male Catholic too. A real slap in the face of the American political crowd.

The choice of a young Trumpist sends a clear signal that the MAGA movement, which genuinely dislikes and even fears both party establishments, will be an important political factor even after 2028. A Vance vice presidency means that the 47th president of the U.S. has secured himself against future impeachment by the Democrats. According to Donald Trump Jr., choosing a candidate like Haley promoted by Republican supporters could mean that the new president wouldn’t even be able to take his oath of office before opponents would seek to remove him from office. However, a prospect of changing one candidate for the same candidate, that is, dumping old Trump for his young supporter, makes a third impeachment less likely.

I won’t make any radical predictions, but, for the U.S., the new coming of Trump along with a potential successor for 2028 still opens certain possibilities. Perhaps this is the last chance to rip America from the claws of globalists and to reindustrialize the U.S. The problem is, that can’t be done without a fight anymore. That means the U.S. will face a political fever of such pitch no one will be able to avoid it.

Now — the most important issue. What would the Trump crowd’s return to the White House mean for us? On the one hand, both Trump and his running mate mostly take a peace-seeking tone with Russia, as though inviting us back to the negotiating table. Trump and his team are not obsessed with one of the most crucial conflict points of today — Ukraine. MAGA Republicans view the Volodymyr Zelenskyy regime as a toxic asset that the U.S. needs to dump as soon as possible, and with the least possible harm, to focus on strategic opposition to China.

On the other hand, we remember well how the 2016-2020 version of Trump easily trod the path of practical escalation in his relationship with Moscow, despite the fact that he maintained a respectful attitude toward both the Russian Federation and especially the Russian leader. It was Trump who approved the supplies of lethal weapons to Ukraine. Washington withdrew from the essential Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty under the Republican president as well, while Biden began his first and his last term with saving New START, which was also at risk under Trump. The pressure on Russian diplomats in the U.S. under Trump wasn’t weaker — to the contrary, it intensified, etc.

So, there’s no need to worry about the biography of “our redhead.” The Washington swamp, in its incredible stupidity, ensured that his biography is now glorious. However, there’s not much confidence in how much the redhead in rushing at full political speed to the White House will be favorable to us. Even if Trump doesn’t admit any deranged John Boltons into his new administration, the ideology of American exceptionalism and the logic of a rigid opposition between the U.S. and China may still put us in the middle of incredibly complex geopolitical dilemmas, even if we consider an optimistic version of how the Ukraine conflict ends, something that nothing and no one can guarantee right now.

The world will be so shaken in the coming years that everyone should be vigilant. Especially us. It would be folly to stop viewing Americans as a cunning, dangerous and aggressive enemy under any administration in power. Which, however, won’t stop us from feeling joy simply as human beings for old man Donald, who survived an assassination attempt. And we can also appreciate the beauty of his historic photo in Pennsylvania.

The fact that Washington demons are going absolutely insane after such a turn of events is very pleasing. But no more than that. We shouldn’t reach excessively far-reaching conclusions and expect something good from the United States of either Joe Biden or Trump. It will be enough if there are no military confrontations or a nuclear apocalypse. That’s what we need to work on.