Trump in the Lead, but …

They are also helped by the obvious doubts surrounding the age and frailty of President Joe Biden. Still, some of the Republicans’ proposals are controversial in and of themselves.

With three months to go before the actual voting, Republican voices are rising up to warn against overconfidence and the belief that their party, with Donald Trump at the helm, is practically assured of victory in the November election.

The first to do so was Donald Trump Jr., the influential eldest son of the former president who is now a candidate. And he is right. The vote is more than three long months away, and although the already formal Republican candidate maintains the lead he has held all year, it is so far only 1 or 2 points. The momentum that may come out of Saturday’s attack and the current Milwaukee convention will still face the test of the Paris Olympics at the end of July and the Democratic meeting in Chicago, the second half of August.

In any case, the Republicans seem optimistic. At their convention, they say they are convinced that their country is in crisis, that the responsibility for the problem lies with the Democrats, and Biden in particular, and that Trump is the best candidate to get them out of the hole.

In their favor is that the United States is a country politically divided almost in half. The current overall points of advantage can be transformed into a massive victory in the Electoral College, the peculiar form of indirect, state-by-state presidential election that characterizes that country.

They are also helped by the obvious doubts surrounding the age and frailty of President Biden. However, some of the Republican proposals are controversial in and of themselves.

But things are not that simple.

To begin with, despite Saturday’s attack and the conviction that he was saved thanks to the “hand of God,” so far Trump does not seem to have received the boost that many expected. His lead in the general polls went up, but he mainly strengthened his image with his followers and maintains his superiority in the “swing” states, where he lost four years ago by small margins.

Who knows if, also in his favor, as a party of “law and order,” 80% of participants in an online poll after Saturday’s attack think the country is “out of control.”

The rhetoric of the current election campaign doesn’t help. And indeed, despite messages of unity and calm issued by both Biden and Trump on Sunday, it remains as heated as it was before Saturday’s attack.

Republicans complain that Biden and the Democrats’ accusations against Trump (including their claims that he will destroy American democracy) are hate speech, while Democrats point to statements by Trump himself and his supporters about “Corrupt Joe,” the former president’s nickname for the incumbent and Democrats’ “left-wing extremism” that Trump and his supporters say will destroy the country.

Republican speakers cited demands for rights for sexual minorities as well as claims of racial discrimination, and rejected accusations that their party is trying to promote differences. Instead, they presented themselves as egalitarian and in favor of equal opportunities for all.

But at the same time, they described apocalyptic scenarios due to the arrival of undocumented immigrants, accompanied by drug cartels, while limiting and hindering police action.

The Republican promises are those of a country where the economy is good, the borders “secure” and without “the chaos” created by Biden, without inflation and with low taxes.

But the reality is that even before the attack, most Americans had reservations about a Biden who was too old and a Trump they considered unworthy of the job.

For now, no one knows how much that perspective might change, or if any of the current candidates can change it.

*Editor’s Note: President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday, July 22, 2024.