Harris Boosts Democrats, But …

The election is still Republican Donald Trump’s to lose.

The “honeymoon” that Vice President Kamala Harris is currently enjoying seems to have given the Democrats an advantage in an election campaign they thought they had lost less than two months ago and may yet lose.

Because the election is still Republican Donald Trump’s to lose.

Since her nomination in late July, Harris has stirred the enthusiasm of Democrats and achieved a slight overall lead, 45.8% to 43.7% over Trump, the controversial former president, who has fallen back on his tactic of insulting his opponents for lack of a better response.

The well-received selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the vice presidential candidate has given Democrats depth, though also a degree of controversy regarding his military service.

The reality is that, a few months ago, there was a commonality of opinion regarding the “slam dunk” candidates of the two parties: Americans would have liked it to be someone else. President Joe Biden, at 81, was perceived as too old and visibly weak and Republican Trump, 78, was seemingly more energetic, but ethically undesirable.

Biden’s decision not to run for office, after a disastrous debate on June 27 and pressure from his fellow party members, put the spotlight on Trump and his problems.

According to the accredited FiveThirtyEight website, which specializes in polling, Harris already has a slight lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, three of the seven states considered “swing,” where the election is expected to be played out. Trump leads, also slightly, in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, but — in the opinion of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter — there is a fundamental change in the situation, even in the campaigns where legislative majorities are at stake.

“For the first time in a long time, the Democrats are united and full of energy, while the Republicans are hot on their heels. Unforced errors by both Trump and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, have diverted media attention from Biden’s age to Trump’s shortcomings,” Cook’s analysis explained.*

But given the peculiarities of the U.S. electoral system, where the number of electors in each state is determined by its population, the election is still Trump’s to lose.

In fact, it brings to mind an incongruity. On two occasions in the last 25 years, the Democrats had the majority of the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral College. In the 2000 election Republican George W. Bush had 50,456,002 votes vs. 50,999,897 for Democrat Al Gore, but the Republicans got 271 electoral votes against 266 for the Democrats; in 2016, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton got 65,853,514 votes against 62,984,828 for Republican Trump, who, however, got 304 electoral votes against 227 in that one.

Will history repeat itself?

*Editor’s Note: Although accurately translated, this quote could not be independently verified.