Enthusiasm Switched Sides

Six weeks ago, Trump was leading, 43%-42%, over presidential candidate President Joe Biden

Today they call it the “Kamalamentum,” a combination of the words “Kamala” for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, and “momentum,” signifying stimulus.

The “Kamalamentum” is now reflected in a turnaround in opinion polls, which, on the eve of the Democratic National Convention, show Harris outpacing Republican Donald Trump 49%-45% in preferences, but still within the margins of error.

Six weeks ago, Trump was leading, 43%- 42%, over presidential candidate Joe Biden.

Just six weeks ago, it was expected that the Democratic National Convention, which begins today, Monday, in Chicago, would be a political drama, one in which Biden, a president who at nearly 82 years old was under attack for his physical frailty, would try to energize his demoralized supporters.

On July 16, the Republican convention began in Milwaukee, where Trump was anxiously awaited by his followers after the assassination attempt during a rally on July 13. The attack only added to Trump’s popularity among those closest to him.

The Republican National Convention, from July 16-19, was an exaltation of Trump that added to the Democrats’ despair.

Two days later, on July 21, Biden announced he would withdraw from the race and support Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate, and Harris gained the consensus and support of the Democratic establishment in just a few days.

At that point, the U.S. presidential campaign changed dramatically. So much so that suddenly Trump was the elderly candidate 78, and now complaining that he had prepared to take on Biden and that the switch to Kamala Harris was illegal.

Trump has not lost popularity among his own supporters, but the selection of Harris, a woman with an Afro-Caribbean father and an Indian mother, energized Democrats. Bruce Mehlman, a solid political analyst, noted on Sunday that, while six weeks ago enthusiasm indicators pointed to Republicans 71-33%, today they favor Democrats 81-80%.

The change comes partly as a result of style. Where Biden, an old-school politician, campaigned on defending American democracy, and hardly responded to Trump’s personal insults, Harris retains the Democratic perspective but mocks Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, calling them “weird” and “creepy.”

Harris is just beginning to present her agenda, defined at the outset as populist and progressive, but which continue what Democrats consider to be Biden’s successful economic policy. Yet she does not fail to use “hooks” such as offering change, tax exemptions for families with children, and stricter immigration policies.

Her problem will be to keep the “Kamalamentum” going for 75 more days.