Kamala Who? For China’s Government, Harris Is the Bigger Question Mark

For the first time in eight years, the United States national security advisor is visiting China. Jake Sullivan’s talks with the highest-ranking foreign policy official in China, Wang Yi, are coming at a critical moment. Kamala Harris will also be a concern.

The goal is to reduce tension. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is in Beijing for talks. Discussion is supposed to address Taiwan, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and China’s power plays in the South China Sea. It is a critical moment. Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping achieved a certain stability in relations at their meeting in San Francisco nine months ago, but the risk of an escalation persists. In addition, Americans are electing a new president in November. Until recently, Beijing did not anticipate it might be a woman.

China Knows Trump But Not Harris

Kamala Harris’ rise as the promising Democratic presidential nominee has caught Beijing off guard. Whereas Beijing is familiar when it comes to interacting with Trump, Harris is largely a blank slate. She has never been to China and has only briefly met its head of state, Xi Jinping, once.

Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate has proven he is familiar with China, but he is also a sharp critic of the human rights situation in the country. It is unclear how much influence Walz could have on foreign policy. Political leadership in Beijing is uncertain about what a Harris-Walz administration could mean for China.

Thus, Sullivan’s talks with Wang Yi, China’s highest-ranking foreign policy official, will also address what China could expect should Harris win. Harris would probably retain the broad strokes of Biden’s China policy, including export controls on semiconductors. Still, she has repeatedly criticized Trump’s plans to sharply increase tariffs on Chinese imports, slight shifts that are decisive.

Since Harris has become the Democratic presidential nominee, she has hardly mentioned China, in contrast to Trump. Still, in her closing speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois, last week, she asserted that the U.S., not China, would win the competition for the 21st century. Harris’ work as vice president and senator offer additional clues about her stand on China.

Before she was vice president, Harris had little foreign policy experience. She has traveled extensively in the last four years and met with heads of state, many of them, notably, in Asia, including William Lai, before he became president of Taiwan, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, and Fumio Kishida, Japan’s outgoing prime minister. She also spoke briefly with Xi and Li Qiana, his No. 2 official.

In the Senate, Harris supported a 2019 bill on Hong Kong and, in the following year, a bill on the Uyghur region of Xinjiang. It remains an open question as to whether that means Harris would place increased focus on human rights.

For China, Trump Is the Lesser Evil

China’s propaganda is facing the greatest challenge. Biden’s withdrawal caused a headache in Beijing. Social media deleted posts that called Biden’s decision selfless and patriotic as they could have understood as covert demands on Xi. Xi did away with term limits in 2018 and can potentially remain in power for the rest of his life.

The presidential contest between Trump and Biden provided a platform to illustrate a defective democracy. Citizens had to choose between two evils, two aging white men. But now a 59-year-old Black woman could become president of the United States.

For China, Trump and Harris also represent two evils, Trump being familiar, and Harris being a big question mark. Trump is probably the lesser of the two evils. He may be unpredictable, but his unilateral actions and “America First” policies damage the international image of the United States, which benefits China.