US Campaign: In the Final Stretch

The United States celebrates Labor Day celebrated on the first Monday in September and it is traditionally the start of the presidential campaign

Labor Day, which the United States celebrates on the first Monday in September, is traditionally the start of the presidential campaign, but in the case of 2024, it could well be compared to one of those races where the final stretch is the time for one last push.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ candidacy was the scene of a literally unprecedented month in American politics, but the reality is that her real achievement is to have leveled the competition with Republican candidate Donald Trump’s seemingly overwhelming campaign.

Harris’ emergence has injected new hope into the Democrats, which, until July 21, seemed to be resigned to pessimism; they lined up out of affection and respect, but with little conviction, behind President Joe Biden, who looked tired, old, and weak. The image said it all.

Now, 40 days later, Democrats seem imbued with an almost exaggerated optimism, what some call a “wonderful exuberance,” but also one that compels their leaders to recommend caution and hard work. “They think it’s a 60-40 race when it’s a 50-50 one,” reported Politico.

The fact is that Harris and the Democrats have managed to go toe-to-toe with the Republicans in terms of enthusiasm, voting commitment and fundraising, which is no small feat. Moreover, the data says they are slightly ahead in national polls, including at least three of the six states which are expected to decide the election.

At the same time, a significant degree of attention is already focused on the campaigns for the control of Congress. The Republicans believe it is possible to achieve a majority in the Senate and the Democrats in the House of Representatives, the exact opposite of how they are now, and perhaps with similar minimal advantages: three seats in one and five in the other.

The fate of many legislative contenders is tied to the presidential candidates, who in turn need all the support they can get for their own purposes.

In all cases, up or down the ballot, the two parties and their candidates are within the margins of error. Neither can claim to have won the election and, indeed, it will be an intense two months in which both campaigns will present voters with proposals and counterproposals.

However, while Trump would have no problem with a victory as tight as Biden’s in 2020, literally by tenths of a point in the “swing” states despite a clear lead in the popular vote, Harris seems obliged to get a clear win, as wide as possible, to avoid the anticipated claims of cheating and irregularities that Trump and his allies have already begun to raise.

But in the intensely polarized political climate of the United States, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the race until voting begins, say pundits like Nate Silver.