Donald Trump on a Roll. Where Is He Gaining Ground?

Donald Trump is unexpectedly gaining an advantage in key swing states of the American South. Not only are young people switching to his side, but so are Latinos.

The effect of the televised debate has faded. Just after it ended, two-thirds of viewers said Kamala Harris won. However, just before the clash, the Democratic candidate had a 2.5% lead over Donald Trump according to FiveThirtyEight.com. Two weeks later, the difference essentially was back where it started with a 2.6% lead. In other words, what looked like a considerable success for Harris ultimately proved to be meaningless.

Trump, too, has had a similar experience. The second assassination attempt on the billionaire, which occurred on a golf course in Palm Beach last week, has not significantly affected poll results. This is because the upcoming election will be the closest in the country’s history, according to the American press. America has split into two blocs, which only exclude the social fringe. And it is this very limited group that will decide who will become the 47th U.S. president.

There are seven swing states. Four of them make up the Sun Belt: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. The others are part of the Rust Belt: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The highly regarded New York Times and Siena College poll shows that Trump has unexpectedly gained a 5% lead in Arizona. This is all the more surprising because it is the home state of the former president’s fierce opponent, Sen. John McCain, who died in 2018. But Arizona residents are far more interested in immigration and the economy than the candidate’s personality; and on both issues, they trust Trump more than Harris.

The billionaire also holds leads of 4% in Georgia and 2% in North Carolina. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina provide a total of 44 electoral voices. If we include the states where Trump is certain to win, he is now only 51 votes shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

However, the situation is less favorable in the northern swing states. In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Harris has a 1% to 2% lead. Yet, analysts note that Hillary Clinton had a much larger advantage in the polls in 2016, but in end it was Trump who won these states. This happened because some respondents were too embarrassed to reveal their choices to pollsters. Will it be the same this time around? We don’t know.

In such a close race, even the smallest variations can determine the outcome. In the swing states, 56% of respondents believe Trump would be better at ending the war in Ukraine or in the Middle East, compared to 55% who believe Harris would do a better job.

Hence, Trump’s rhetoric on the issue has grown increasingly radical. Just before he met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Republican candidate called Zelenskyy “the greatest salesman,” because “every time he comes to U.S, he walks away with $60 billion.”

Even if Harris wins the popular vote, it does not give her a pass to the presidency. This is because in such very populous states as California and New York, many votes cast for the Democrats are wasted. Even with a smaller margin, these states’ electoral votes would still go to Harris.

US Election: Latinos Split between Trump and Harris

The longstanding polarization in America remains quite clear. Harris has a very distinct advantage (54% to 42%) among women, while the proportions are reversed for male voters. A similar divide exists in terms of age: Although the vice president strongly leads among Americans under 30 (58% to 37%), the edge among older voters belongs to Trump by a 51% to 44% ratio.

Education makes no difference. White voters who are at least college graduates overwhelmingly support Harris (61% to 36%); those without a college degree favor the billionaire by a wide margin (56% to 38%).

These figures help identify the choices America faces today. On the one hand, it probably reflects a highly idealized past of a country with a predominantly masculine culture dominated by European descendants. On the other hand, it reflects a clearly more mobile society, where traditional family roles are less central and women hold greater influence. Such sharp polarization means that even the seemingly key events of the current campaign have limited impact.

However, ethnic minority voters do not fit neatly into this divide. In a country where white citizens now make up only 59% of society, this has fundamental significance. Harris, a person of color, does not enjoy the overwhelming advantage one might expect. Although 79% of African Americans intend to vote for her (compared to 15% who prefer Trump), the proportions are much more even among Latinos (51% support Harris, and 39%, Trump). This is because many Latinos are driven more by conservative values rather than by ethnicity.