America’s Darkest Storms Still Lie Ahead

Hurricanes Helene and Milton are playing an outsized role in the presidential election because Donald Trump is deliberately weaponizing the disasters. However, the election will be decided on other fronts.

The U.S. uses the term “October surprise” for those unexpected events that can occur a few weeks out from an election and are still capable of influencing the public mood and final result. The biggest upsets of the current presidential race occurred over the summer, apparently culminating in a dead heat between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

In theory, these natural disasters should play to Vice President Harris’ advantage. They give those now in office an opportunity to prove they are committed to the people and show just how vital active government engagement is — ground on which the Democrats have far greater credibility than Republicans. In addition, there is a clear link between the intensity of the hurricanes and rising global temperatures, something Trump rejects.

A Propaganda Storm

Nevertheless, the former president has managed to exploit the suffering of people severely impacted by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina and Georgia for his own political gain, not least by telling outright lies, which his supporters invariably believe. The Biden-Harris administration’s agile disaster recovery efforts are too easily drowned out by the torrent of propaganda. While many voters doubtless find this outrageous, they wouldn’t have voted for Trump, anyway.

Helene and the latest Hurricane Milton, which may prove to be the worst storm of the century, only reinforce the image of a nation already plunged into a deep crisis by the issues of immigration, inflation and wars in Europe and the Middle East. If we are to believe Trump, Biden and Harris are to blame for it all, and he would solve every problem in a single stroke.

Florida Is Not the Decisive Battleground

Yet, we should not let ourselves to be taken in by the mood on social media platforms dominated by Trump and his lies. The election will not be decided in Florida, a state that turned reliably Republican some time ago. Most Floridians will not let even the dire consequences of a climate emergency, a subject Gov. Ron DeSantis systematically downplays, convince them otherwise.

Even if Trump’s messaging succeeds in getting through to the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, Harris still holds the stronger hand, provided she can win in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where she has an extremely narrow lead in the polls. The hurricane did not affect these states.

A Looming Battle over Mail-In Ballots

In the end, just a few thousand votes in Pennsylvania could decide who gets the keys to the White House. Thanks to an uncertain legal situation in that state, a battle is brewing over the validity of every single vote cast by mail. Around one-third of Pennsylvania voters have already received their mail-in ballots.

Accordingly, the outcome of this election in which everything is at stake for the United States and the rest of the world, might come down to small, chance factors on Election Day or furious legal disputes and unrest mounted by Trump’s supporters in the weeks that follow. Ultimately, the Supreme Court, with a far more conservative bench now, might pronounce the final result as it did after the 2000 presidential election.

While Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton will likely go down in history as seismic events for the Southeastern United States, the darkest storms may yet lie ahead for the nation as a whole.