It’s Too Early To See the Shape of the Future in Trump’s Words*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Now is Trump’s “golden age.”

Donald Trump talked about many things in his interview with Tucker Carlson including the Nord Stream pipeline and relations with China and Russia. But it’s still too soon to draw any clear conclusions about the future from what he said. Trump is a flashy populist and showman, always eager to capture the attention of a broad audience. Right now, he’s in his “golden age,” a time when he can just talk and talk and be sure that his audience listens and engages with what he says and what he predicts.

Kamala Harris, by contrast, is taking a completely different approach. She aims to run her campaign without drawing too much attention, quietly secure the presidency, and then retreat into the White House for the next four years. Her disinterest in China and Russia is apparent, and while the rules of the game require her to speak publicly, she doesn’t excel at it.

As for Trump, it’s important to note that he promises a lot of things. But he needs to do several things to achieve his objectives. First, he must defeat the deep state, which, in this election cycle, is represented by Harris. Then, he will need to navigate the “American Maidan,” which is likely to create some turbulence in New York and Washington for a while. Congress will have its final say only on Jan 6. Generally speaking, Trump won’t have the opportunity to focus on Russia and China until February.

Trump has a longstanding disdain for our Chinese partners, and by the end of winter, he will likely clash with the official government in Beijing. He has leverage over China, but it’s crucial to remember that everything Trump says today — if and when he becomes president for a second time — will come to pass with significant caveats.