There are almost 2 1/2 months for Israel between the election and the Trump takes office, but this period is also particularly challenging and critical for Israel’s enemies. However, no less important: What will happen after Jan. 20?
Donald Trump won (and so did Benjamin Netanyahu’s politics). This is not just a victory, but a perfect comeback, including a majority in the Senate, which gives the new-old president a position of authority in all three corridors of power: the presidency, Congress, and the judiciary, including the Supreme Court. The victory also shows that the majority of the public saw the court cases against Trump as a distraction or opposition politics. When Joe Biden was deposed from his candidacy and Kamala Harris was parachuted in as his replacement, I wrote that the Democrats had crowned Trump as president and it appears I was right. In the past, even in a close race, the losing candidate accepted the result, even if through clenched teeth. The majority of the public was the same way. This was not the case in 2020 and apparently not this time either.
America, eaten up by hatred, will continue to be divided and with that, questions are raised that are likely to influence the political direction of America in the future. For example, where is the Democratic Party headed, more leftist or will it return to the center? Also, on the issue of the Jewish vote, apparently there is change, proving that concern for Israel and Jewish identification with it represented a not insignificant factor in Trump’s favor and to Harris’ detriment.
This apparently was a blessing because it nullified attempts to forecast from the start the strategy of someone like Trump, as his strategic nature is to be unpredictable. However, statements and decisions he made during his previous term and also statements by some of his advisers perhaps give us a model for the choices he’ll make in his second term.
In the area of foreign policy, he will stand on the goal of ending wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and that members of NATO increase their financial contribution. Regarding China, he will continue to follow Biden’s general policy, both in the economic sphere and in the political-security sphere. The slogan “America First” means that America places its relations with foreign countries, first and foremost, on its own interests and how responsive those countries are to U.S. interests. Trump won’t nullify alliances with other countries such as India, South Korea, Poland, and Israel; however, the United Nations will move to the rear.
His policy will not be totally isolationist, but will emphasize some part of that approach. There is little chance he will take upon himself the role of leader of the free world against the opposition coalition of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Strong support for Israel represents part of the political forecast, but one should recall that in the past, there were disagreements between Trump and Netanyahu and, as one of Netanyahu’s advisers said, “Trump will not hesitate to pressure Netanyahu to advance solutions” and “Trump is able to separate Israel from Netanyahu without stopping his support for Israel and its right to defend itself” (reminiscent of previous administrations).
Who will be on his senior team? In his previous term, which is not a template or an indication, he chose appointees who raised questions as to whether they could get along with him. Will he be more selective this time? President Trump will, of course, renew his initiative for a broad regional settlement based, among other things, on establishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as an extension of his and Netanyahu’s Abraham Accords from his first term.
This initiative will be in accord with Israel, but may also be bound up and pressured by the Palestinian issue. If the initiative moves forward (the Biden administration also supported it), it will bear fruit politically and security-wise, as well as significant economic advantages to Israel. It is possible we will see the initial signs in the next few months.
Regarding Iran, Trump will return to a policy of heavy economic pressure that he lost in the election the last time and end previous efforts to renew the nuclear accord. Four years is not a long enough period so, in contrast with his first term, Trump will advance his political goals on a very fast schedule. Trump succeeded in convincing the public that during his previous term there was generally global peace; in contrast to the situation during the Barack Obama and Biden’s terms, peace is promising in Trump’s new term.
In the United States and elsewhere, there are those who are concerned about the fate of democracy, fearing that the world will be inflamed by Trump’s extremist and irrational statements or by the behavior and words of peripheral elements whom Trump has taken on board. Harris called him a fascist without understanding the true characteristics of this label. As one anti-Trump American news commentator wrote, “If he was a fascist, all those accusing him would find themselves in jail back during his first term and not in television studios.” The term “fascist” has become a pejorative word for those on the left, not only in the United States, for everyone who does not walk the ideological and progressive line of the left.
It is possible that democracy and liberalism are not planted deeply in Trump’s consciousness, but his previous term proved there is no real basis for the accusations leveled at him and, besides that, the U.S. Constitution prevents steps by a president or administration to overturn administrative protocols. Moreover, the Supreme Court, despite its fluctuating political character, will not support a clear violation of the rules (in contrast to the High Court in Israel, which grants itself the right to nullify basic laws). In fact, the Democrats considered doing harm to the Supreme Court on more than one occasion.
Other than unchecked migration, with which Harris was identified, another important element in Trump’s favor was that, despite improvement of the macroeconomic situation, such gains had still not reached the middle class and worker household.
No less than a personal victory for Trump and the Republican Party, the election also represents a major failure for the Democratic Party, which appointed Harris as its representative, someone almost devoid of any skills on concrete issues such as the economy, policies and border security, whether this was a lack of understanding or cautious reserve. She stated a number of times that her administration would not be an extension of Biden’s, meaning, apparently, primarily toward Israel, without this gaining her votes from among the Arab community in key states such as Michigan.
The Democratic Party did not and will not disappear from the political arena; however, its leaders and activists must conduct a core review of the steps it has taken, including the move left and creating extremist leftist crossroads marked chiefly by enmity toward Israel and antisemitic expression.
The almost 2 1/2 months between the election and the time Trump take office will be for Israel, and also for its enemies, a particularly challenging and critical period. It is possible the test will come in the next few days or weeks if Iran and its proxies launch a major attack against Israel.
How will Biden, who has been freed from election considerations and is intent on validating his policies (and perhaps with some schadenfreude), act subsequently? Biden will still have all the powers of a ruling administration, in any event, and it is possible during the interim period there will be implications for Israel’s political and security decisions, or Iran’s, or the United States’.
Will Biden take defensive and punishing measures toward Iran? Equally important if not more so is what will happen after Jan. 20. As the head of an important think tank in Washington wrote to me before the election: “Biden up to a point was good; Harris was a question mark; Trump publicly makes aggressive statements, but behaves less so (‘a little like a coward’) when he needs to grab something with force. These are not our best days.”*
*Editor’s Note: This quote, though accurately translated, could not be independently verified.
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