As the World Tries To Stomach Trump

Donald Trump is not someone who is liked or respected by rational people who adhere to social norms or think and act according to the rules, either at home or abroad. He is first and foremost arrogant and aggressive, has a history of violating rights and laws, and is also a convicted molester. He is famous for disregarding the values and achievements of the system he’s a part of, and of course he’s prejudiced and racist to boot.

But he is a powerful speaker; he knows what potential voters want, and how to articulate their desires. He says that if newcomers and immigrants in the U.S. illegally are not able to ake their jobs, citizens won’t be forced to work for pennies. He promises to eliminate the suffering caused by the drift of production to China and elsewhere by increasing tariffs. He delivers the good news that people will not die in needless wars.

He says that money now spent on war and ensuring the security of rich European and Asian countries will remain in America. He says that he won’t support NATO — whose members and purpose are unknown to the average American voter — and that he won’t protect member states from attack if they haven’t contributed sufficiently. He claims that he’ll end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. He emphasizes that his competition will be with China.

Trump also won the election in a landslide after a back-up candidate, once discouraged from running, replaced a not entirely able-minded individual. Those who closely followed the course of the election believe the attempt on Trump’s life, and the reaction he displayed after it, also had an impact on the outcome. There is also a large number of those who believe he won the 2020 election as well.

However Trump may have won, the fact is that, as of the early hours of Nov. 6, Trump is now set to return to the helm of the United States, still the most powerful and influential country in the world, whether rational people at home or around the world like it or not. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Trump will take office on Jan. 20, 2025, and from Day 1, he will take action that will worry his country and us as well.

Trump 2.0 will likely be different from Trump 1.0; the world has changed since his first term, and he is more prepared to govern. It seems that his first moves will include actions questionable from a humanitarian perspective, as well as actions that will break the law. If he does what he has said he will do, he will take measures to protect the southern border more tightly, and establish detention camps with the aim of expelling immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. Beyond this, he will try to create a federal bureaucracy loyal to him, as reported with alarm in yesterday’s New York Times.

What’s more, Trump will set a precedent for political movements and leaders elsewhere in the world who will no doubt apply the lessons taken from Trump’s success even in Germany and France. The world will continue to evolve into a different place from the world our generation and those before it know. Values will erode more easily, people will violate rules for simpler reasons. It is likely that big geopolitical changes will also take place.

It is my hope Trump that does not implement every recommendation in Project 2025, a document the Heritage Foundation has been preparing as a road map for conservative administrations since 1981. But this time, it contains radical changes, even though Trump maintains his distance from the foundation, and avoid any enterprise that might erode the separation of powers, a possibility that has concerned thought leaders such as Stephen Walt of Foreign Policy.

This is because this movement n America has the potential to affect the rest of the world, including us, due to the precedent it sets, the security vacuum it will create and the hubris of its leader.. We must follow developments closely and objectively. On the one hand, Turkey must correctly read the parameters of the new world order that the new America will help shape, and on the other, it must keep track of Trump’s promises and statements — which include removing troops from Syria — without becoming overly hopeful.

Beyond all of this, we must also see that America’s inner transformation can create opportunities for us, such as the potential to play a bigger role in Europe’s new security architecture. Although I don’t have particularly high hopes for the resolution of the Palestine issue, or even for an end to the humanitarian tragedy taking place in the region, I truly believe that a Trump administration can end the war in Ukraine and, in addition, that Turkey can play an important role in this effort.

Something like the Istanbul peace talks of March 2022 would be a good starting point. If Turkey wishes, in the coming two months it could convey to the parties through appropriate channels that it is open to helping, with the goal of laying the groundwork for negotiations that balance the expectations of both Russia and Ukraine, bearing in mind that real reconciliation can occur only between Vladimir Putin and Trump. Turkey might develop a similar initiative for Iran as well.

Notwithstanding such steps, however, there is benefit in being prepared for the geopolitical turbulence Trump’s administration will create and for the trade wars that could emerge as a consequence of the tariffs he will impose. As for bilateral relations, it is to our advantagevto be wary of Trump’s friendship and his close relations with acquaintances like Elon Musk. Let’s benefit from opportunities without relinquishing precaution, and let’s keep our options open as best we can.