A Complicated Situation

The point is a simple one. The two countries need accommodations, not so much out of affection or sympathy, which perhaps there should be, nor because of political affinities that often clash, but simply and plainly out of convenience

Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election poses a real problem for the Mexican government. Not that Mexico’s importance to the United States has diminished. Geopolitically and economically, it is a country that the U.S. considers and wants in its orbit, both for its regional project and for its specific strategic needs.

Only Canada, a country with 4,000 miles of border with the United States, has longer borders than Mexico’s, which is half as long*. But unlike Canada, Mexico has three times the population, a potentially sizable Latino minority audience, and is the convergence point for some of the biggest U.S. challenges.

The two countries need accommodations, not so much out of affection or sympathy, which perhaps there should be, nor because of political affinities that often clash, but purely and simply out of convenience.

The United States needs a reliable partner in terms of security, supply and economic production. Mexico needs the U.S. market for its development and survival, if you will.

The United States, for better or worse, is a reality in Mexico’s social, economic and political life; other regions of the world, perhaps more effectively or ideologically close to the country or its government, are for now mere phantasms or realities that are too far away.

Worse, the U.S. is a nation facing a multiplicity of problems in what was once uncontested hegemony. Now, there is a growing impression that it cannot and will not tolerate much dissension. The web of internal arrangements for dealing with certain external enemies can become a complicated series of traps in any relationship with it.

The fact is that two of the Trump administration’s top priorities relate to Mexico: trade and migration.

In the first case, a central issue is the trade relationship with China and whether or not Mexico is an important part of the equation. Issues like energy, such as genetically modified corn, will be of greater importance to the Trump administration than they were to Joe Biden’s administration.

Trump negotiated the current United States-Mexico-Canada treaty. It is feasible that he will seek to revise and modify it, but not to terminate it, and that opens a door for him with the Mexican government.

In the second case, migration is synonymous here with border security and drug trafficking issues. It is no secret that Republicans have even expressed intentions to send soldiers to Mexico to carry out attacks against drug cartels, and that Trump himself wants to restart his border wall. It’s not going to be an easy situation: Trump not only won the electoral vote, but also a possible majority of the popular vote, control of the Senate, and barring surprises, a large minority in the lower house. That is no small feat. He feels vindicated, and his party strengthened.

*Editor’s Note: The border between Canada and the U.S. is 5,525 miles long. The border with Mexico is 1,954 miles.