Congress Is Still an Effective Check on Trump*

The Republicans have a razor thin majority in the House of Representatives, and the Senate is still performing its constitutional role as a check on the executive. This is having a moderating effect on Trump’s plans.

After Donald Trump’s election victory, there were grave concerns he would dramatically undermine America’s democratic institutions. The Democrats even raised the specter of impending fascism. Fortunately, however, such dire fears have proved premature. On Thursday — no less than one month after Election Day — the last results of the race for the House of Representatives finally trickled in. A Democrat captured an incumbent Republican’s seat in California’s Central Valley district.

This means that the Republicans now hold a razor thin majority of five seats, with 220 out of 435 seats in the House. It will make congressional business tricky for the House speaker and Trump loyalist Mike Johnson. The Republicans have a lengthy wish list for the coming legislative session. Reforms to immigration, border security and energy production, coupled with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s deregulation and efficiency-saving program, all rank as high priorities for the first three months. That’s according to the discussions and arrangements the Republicans on Capitol Hill have made with the future president. Republicans are moving with quite remarkable discipline and energy.

Yet, however zealous their reform drive may be, the Republicans’ majorities are rather thin. It’s becoming obvious they are unlikely to get their legislative agenda through without some assistance from the Democrats. The majority situation will be particularly precarious in the first crucial months, since Trump appointed two Republican members of Congress to his cabinet — Elise Stefanik as ambassador-designate to the U.N. and Mike Waltz as national security adviser. Matt Gaetz, Trump’s failed pick for attorney general, also resigned his seat in Congress. House Speaker Johnson made it clear Trump had hit a limit on selecting GOP lawmakers — it was “enough already.” Special elections to fill the vacant seats won’t take place until April. In the meantime, the Republicans will feel these vacancies keenly. Moreover, a handful of Trump-skeptic Republican members of Congress could tip the scales. Johnson’s promise to aggressively pursue President-elect Trump’s agenda now appears out of step with reality. It seems far more likely the Republicans will have to scale back their ambitions to stave off stymying their legislative plans. Congressional business relies on compromise, whether Trump likes it or not.

Nor can Trump behave as he originally intended to behave in the Senate. Senators did not lose any sleep over deflecting his undemocratic request for “recess appointments.” Instead of waving through Trump’s Cabinet nominations without confirmation hearings or votes at his behest, senators are abiding by their constitutional duty to vet the candidates thoroughly. In so doing, they are setting clear boundaries for Trump. Two nominees, Matt Gaetz and Chad Chronister, who was Trump’s pick to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration, have already withdrawn from consideration.

When the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, nominees like Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel are expected to face rigorous questioning during confirmation hearings. The Republicans’ Senate majority is also rather thin. It only takes four votes to derail a confirmation, and there are enough moderate Republicans willing to stand up to Trump should the need arise. Moreover, new Senate Majority Leader John Thune is cut from the Republican Party’s more traditional cloth.

Trump has evidently decided to play by the rules for the time being. In any case, he has stayed out of the debate surrounding his dubious Cabinet nominations. He has also acquiesced to requirements that the FBI carry out the usual background checks on the candidates. In reality, Trump would only squander political capital if he were to challenge his own party to put up a fight. Thus, the scene currently playing out on Capitol Hill is one of orderly activity without any unruly noises off in the wings, which certainly comes as welcome news from Washington.

For Congress cannot function without compromise, whether or not it pleases Trump.

*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.