A Last Show of Strength at the End?

The revolution in Syria presents Joe Biden with another major challenge in the Middle East a few weeks before the end of his presidency. He hopes to show that his strategy is working.

Three American presidents were more or less intensively involved with the civil war in Syria: Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Since the early 1960s, 12 presidents have contended with the influence and power of the Assad family, going back to John F. Kennedy in his final months. And now even the Biden administration has watched with some surprise as Bashar Assad fled Damascus this weekend.

Biden’s schedule the following Monday included a summit of American tribal nations as well as an evening gala for members of Congress, six weeks before the inauguration of his predecessor and successor. Donald Trump is already shaping parts of America’s international relations according to his wishes; on Saturday, Trump sat in the front row for the reopening of Notre Dame in Paris. But for now, foreign policy expert Biden and his diplomats are still in demand.

What To Do with the New Syria without Assad?

In the media this side of the Atlantic, like everywhere, images of the plundered Assad palaces are making the rounds along with reports of the Assads’ escape to Moscow, the celebration of those freed and the command of a rebel group under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Golani. The man may remind older Americans a bit of the young Fidel Castro owing to his bushy beard and olive green uniform.

The day after Trump appeared with Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris on Sunday, Biden stood before cameras in the White House. “At long last, the Assad regime has fallen,” he said. “This regime brutalized and tortured and killed literally hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians.” He called it “a fundamental act of justice,” but there are just a few fundamental uncertainties.

On the one hand, the leaders of these conquerors, the rebel alliance militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, are on the U.S. terrorism list. Their previous collaboration with al-Qaida made the group an enemy of the American state, and suddenly they may be a potential partner. As far as terrorism is concerned, the history of these people is bleak, Biden indicated. “They’re saying the right things now, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”*

The Terrorist Militia Islamic State Must Not Exploit the Vacuum, so the US Air Force Is Attacking

On the other hand, there is the terrorist militia Islamic State group. “We’re clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its capability and to create a safe haven,” Biden said. “We will not let that happen.”

Washington is governing with weapons and words for now. The U.S. Air Force attacked Islamic State positions in central Syria with B-52 bombers and F-15 and A-10 fighter jets; the Air Force reported that it attacked 75 targets with 140 missiles. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, who leads the U.S. Central Command.

Reports that there have been no civilian casualties in the air attacks have not allayed concerns about the unpredictable situation. Approximately 9,000 Islamic State fighters alone are being held in camps in northeastern Syria. Additionally, the Biden administration wants to control the rest of Assad’s chemical weapon arsenal, and this, too, is a delicate issue.

900 US Soldiers To Remain in Syria for Now

Obama drew a red line on the use of these weapons that Assad was not to cross in any way. When Assad deployed the weapons against his challengers anyway, the man in the Oval Office at the time did not act very decisively. Nevertheless, large parts of the chemical weapons supply were apparently rendered harmless after international pressure. The Washington Post quoted a high-ranking U.S. official saying they are “pretty confident” they have the biological weapons under control, so there is no need for a ground operation.

Some 900 American soldiers are still stationed in Syria. Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, formerly Trump’s commander of U.S. Central Command, would also strongly recommend leaving them there. “As we know, ISIS launched a successful attack against Russia just a few months ago,” he told ABC. “That’s why those troops are there.”

For Biden, who is often accused of being weak, this is a situation where he intends to prove his strength at the end of his presidency. He is dispatching emissaries to discuss the situation with Assad’s opponents and Syria’s neighbors. In the Middle East, the United States has tried, albeit unsuccessfully so far, to realize a cease-fire and free the hostages in Gaza. The Biden administration was more successful in southern Lebanon in dealing with the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Biden believes that his strategy has weakened Iran in the region and Russia in the war against Ukraine to the extent that Assad could no longer be sustained. The Biden administration says it is also in contact with Turkey; north of Aleppo, U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrians clashed with the Turkish army, causing multiple casualties. The Israeli armed forces in turn announced in advance that they would establish buffer zones in the Golan Heights.

In the best case, Tehran will soon no longer be capable of providing Hezbollah (and Hamas) with weapons, The Wall Street Journal reported. In the worst case, large parts of Syria will fall into the hands of Islamist militants. “This is a moment of considerable risk and uncertainty,” Biden said. “But I also believe this is the best opportunity in generations for Syrians to forge their own future free of opposition.”

On Saturday, Trump posted this on his social network, Truth Social: “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & the United States should have nothing to do with it.” Soon he will have to deal with it, for better or for worse.

*Editor’s Note: On Dec. 20, the U.S. announced that Washington was removing the $10 million bounty offered for Hayat Tahrir Al Sham leader Ahmad Al Shara after a milestone meeting in Damascus.