The Fall of the Hegemon*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Russian Foreign Ministry Diplomatic Academy, discusses what we should expect from the collective West after Donald Trump’s rise to power and why Russia should be ready for new challenges.

The first week of Donald Trump’s presidency turned out to be a hard test for many U.S. allies in the West. It appears that a significant part of Europe’s elite refused to believe the Republican would return to the White House until the very last moment — even after it was inevitable. It’s no surprise that Trump’s remarks at Davos, while not containing anything new, came as a shock to the audience listening to the American leader. It’s only now that they are beginning to realize painfully that there are no alternatives to this new reality. It has been just a short time since Joe Biden’s presidency ended, but it feels like the era when the liberal globalist agenda dominated has been left far behind. A farewell to the illusory “end of history” ended with the grim rise of the Golden Billion.

It’s still too early to draw far-reaching conclusions about the future of relations between the U.S. and Europe in these changed circumstances. But we can’t help but outline some trends. First, for the first time since the isolationist era of the 1920s, a politician has come to power in Washington who puts domestic American problems above the interests of allies and views his relations with the Old World exclusively through a nationally egotistic lens.

Even during Trump’s first term, his foreign policy was largely directed by people who supported old Euro-Atlantic ideological paradigms, people who skillfully manipulated the actions of the inexperienced leader. Now, as is obvious, the Republican Party radical wing’s influence on the decision-making process will be much stronger. For example, Trump is quite confrontational about the European dependency; we can hardly treat his statements about future “trade wars” with the European Union and the need for NATO countries to up their military expense contributions as simple bombast.

The 47th president of the U.S. firmly plans to go down in history as an uncompromising and tough leader who delivers on his election promises. Time will show which promises Trump can fulfill, but it’s obvious that Washington won’t give up without active and aggressive resistance. Finally, the White House is considering a logical question — the feasibility of keeping the Ukrainian project afloat, a subject that interests American citizens less and less. According to Biden’s design, this bloody adventure was supposed to unite the Western camp around the image of Russia as a common enemy. Now, people question the entire concept of the “war for the future of global democracy,” a concept the previous administration cultivated for three years. Trump is much more sympathetic to the “every man for himself” approach, rather than demagogic slogans about the perspectives of the neo-liberal project, something that is alien to Trump.

Notwithstanding the issues above, Russia cannot relax and calmly watch as the squabbles of the Western bloc burst their seams. Of course, Trump can significantly change the balance of power in the American-European alliance, but it’s unlikely these changes will be irreversible. Another leader will come to power in the U.S. four years from now who’s not obligated to advance Trump’s unorthodox policy. Shadow powers in the Anglo-Saxon world are still trying to process the shift in status quo, but they will soon move on to seeking revenge. We need to evaluate the situation soberly and pragmatically and try to find opportunities to sow discord among our opponents, but at the same time prepare for a prolonged struggle. Trumps come and go, but the West with its notion of superiority, its neocolonial ambitions, and its imperialistic heritage remains.

We need to realize that the developments we see in the U.S. and Europe are not the end, not even the beginning of the end, but merely the first chapter in the history of a long crisis of Western hegemony being written before our very eyes. The key to a proper ending that aligns with Russian interests is fulfilling the objectives of the special military operation, after which dramatic changes and challenges will surely follow. Regardless of the outcome in the Western world, we need to start preparing for the challenges of the future now.