Peace, or a Lifeline to Putin?

Ukrainian territory has been under Russian occupation for some time, and the invasion leading to war between Russia and Ukraine continues. Crimea has been occupied for 11 years, and Ukraine’s eastern regions have been under occupation since 2022. When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the assault in 2022, he stated that Soviet Moscow had made a historic mistake when it granted Ukraine independence and the territory it owns today. In Putin’s view, Ukraine, in its entirety, should belong to Russia.

To Russia, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and strengthening ties with the European Union were nothing but excuses. Even without any justification, occupying Ukraine and annexing its territory was a clear objective for the country. Putin hasn’t kept that a secret.

Accordingly, he launched an invasion to this end, calculating that he could reach Kyiv and swallow up the country in as little as three days. The U.S. and Europe responded wisely, standing with Ukraine and easily derailing the plans of Putin, once seen by much of the world as a shrewd leader. The result was a fiasco for Russia: Putin failed to occupy Ukraine. He continues the invasion at great military and economic cost, frequently invoking his nuclear forces in an attempt to lift his own spirits after military failures.

When it began the invasion in Ukraine, Russia was a “superpower,” but no longer. In just two years, Russia has suffered defeats in Ukraine and Syria, become weakened on the global stage and forced to relinquish the world’s number two spot to China. Autocratic and egotistical, Putin has struggled to grasp the global reality, and his expansionist ambitions have inflicted a heavy cost on his country. The Red Army’s fearsome image has crumbled, and it’s clear that its greatest advantage – the defense industry – isn’t functioning well at all.

It’s here that newly sworn-in President Donald Trump is offering Putin a gift beyond his dreams. He’s throwing him a lifeline. That explains why once again, Russia is the happiest country in the wake of Trump’s reelection.

Who can say no to peace? If America’s global authority is able to establish peace between Russia and Ukraine, who can object? The world could not get any better news than this.

However, Trump is no different from Putin when it comes to character and political personality; we should expect that any peace Trump achieves will fail to appreciate Russia’s occupation effort, instead viewing the matter as a fait accompli that allows Russia to keep what it has taken. Trump cannot achieve true peace because he has no sense of the law, is utterly disinterested in who is right and lacks any empathy. It’s obvious what he thinks about Gaza and how disconnected he is from reality.

Everything the American president has said about peace between Russia and Ukraine, including rumors about Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s declining approval ratings, is what he’s heard from Putin on the phone. From the very beginning, Trump has made it clear whose side he’s on – and it doesn’t seem to be Ukraine. Hence, we can’t say that he’s off to a good start for peace.

Nevertheless, peace is absolutely essential, and in order to achieve lasting, true peace, the presence of U.S. and European power behind Ukraine must be guaranteed indefinitely. Otherwise, any small excuse will suffice to justify renewed Russian assaults. Russia shouldn’t get off lightly for the troubles it has brought upon itself and must pay war reparations. Moreover, before discussions have even begun, we should not take it as given the U.S. will cede occupied regions such as Crimea and Donbas to Russia, rendering Ukraine diplomatically defenseless. If the occupied territories were to be handed over immediately, what would be the point of negotiation?

If Trump stops the war through force, pressure or by virtue of his personal dealings with Putin, it will achieve nothing other than giving Russia a breather. Before long, the world will watch in real time as Russia invades Ukraine. Trump included.