Vacillating and Bad at Agreements: Trump Failed against the Russian-Iranian Axis

Despite the praise bordering on adoration that conservatives in Israel heaped on President Donald Trump, he is not the messiah. Many countries will be impacted negatively by a nuclear Iran; for Israel, this is an existential threat and, in fact, under Trump the threat will likely become a reality.

Donald Trump’s pronouncement that he would end all wars is being revealed as clearly unrealistic. His election campaign statement that he would end the war in Ukraine “in one day, 24 hours” [ https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-trump-says-as-president-hed-settle-ukraine-war-within-24-hours/0BCA9F18-D3BF-43DA-9220-C13587EAEDF2?embed=true&gsid=477289b9-be5b-4643-b809-83a4188c2511 ] [PS] did not happen and the attempt to solve the crisis with Iran via Russian mediation is not succeeding. These failures can be added to the false statements made that during his previous administration as president there were no wars (ignoring the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Tigray war).

He succeeded in marketing for himself an image of a “harsh president” and a negotiations wizard. The marketing succeeded, but not the policies or the negotiations. In Israel, he received the status of an adored semi-messiah, as if he were a modern Cyrus the Great; however, it is difficult to look at the man and his previous policies as they actually were — and not as we wanted to see them because of some longing for a savior.

There are a number of examples from his previous term. In August 2017, North Korea made a breakthrough in its nuclear program by conducting ballistic missile tests in the skies over Japan (a strategic partner of the United States), and even threatened to attack the American base at Guam. In response, Trump threatened: “North Korea will be answered with fire and anger that the world has never seen.” [ https://nenosplace.forumotion.com/t142593-north-korea-deplores-the-threat-of-trump-and-threatens-to-bomb ] [PS] The internet went wild over statements by “Trump the powerful” and began preparing for World War III.

And what happened afterward? He met with Kim Jong Un three times, heaping praise on the North Korean dictator and even said, “We fell in love.” [ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/we-fell-in-love-trump-and-kim-shower-praise-stroke-egos-on-path-to-nuclear-negotiations/2019/02/24/46875188-3777-11e9-854a-7a14d7fec96a_story.html ] [PS] He disparaged indirect negotiations used by previous administrations with North Korea (the Obama and Clinton administrations), but, in practice, he did not achieve any breakthroughs. Nothing. In addition, Trump normalized the Pyongyang dictatorship, which operates a large number of concentration camps. Trump’s negotiations failed.

Abandonment of Syria

In April 2018, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against rebels in the city of Duma (a suburb of Damascus), resulting in the deaths of dozens of civilians. In response, Trump, with the backing of a few countries in NATO, ordered an attack, which included more than 100 missiles, against Assad’s military sites. This attack was the fulfillment of a Trump pledge, made after he accused Obama of not adhering to a red line against the use of chemical weapons. One can view this attack in a positive manner because Trump did attack. On the other hand, he did not leverage this attack to bring down the Assad regime or to change the balance of forces in Syria where Iran had already based its land bridge toward Israel and was in the process of basing its forces in the south of Syria.

Over the years, and not only in his current term, Trump has expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin and a desire for rapprochement with Russia. In July 2018, Trump met with Putin in Helsinki, praised him, and expressed a desire to get closer to Russia. He did not criticize Russia’s involvement in Syria or the war in Donbass, which was a preparation for invading Ukraine in 2022. Trump did not condemn or even mention the annexation of Crimea by Russia, but for some reason during his election campaign he said that if he had been president rather than Biden, this war would not have happened. This is a blotting out of history and an ignoring of his weak policy toward Russia and Putin, a policy that laid the groundwork for the invasion of Ukraine.

At the same summit, they agreed to reduce the clashes in southern Syria, and the U.S. administration removed itself from its responsibility for the Sunni militias it had supported by transferring weapons from Jordan (and perhaps even via Israel). These same militias fought against the Assad-Iran-Russia-Hezbollah axis in southern Syria and they, in fact, created a buffer between Iranian aspirations and Israel.

Two days after the Helsinki summit, Assad’s army, Hezbollah, and Russian forces began to attack southern Syria, completely occupying the area. They expelled the Sunni fighters as part of the surrender agreement, moving them to the Idlib enclave in northern Syria. Since there was nothing to separate Iran from Israel, Hezbollah was able to start building its “Golan file.” However, for some reason they forget this, regarding Trump, because he is a “strong president.”

Failure in Negotiations

And what about Iran? In May 2018, Iran unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement, but was unsuccessful in convincing NATO countries and the EU to also withdraw from the agreement signed in Vienna in 2015. Trump imposed renewed American sanctions; this was a positive step, but in May 2019 when Iran began to attack oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, what did he do? He threatened to send 120,000 soldiers to the Persian Gulf, but he did not do it. Iran attacked tanker after tanker; it shot down American drones; it commandeered a British tanker in the Straits of Hormuz and what did he do? Nothing.

In September 2019, Iran, via the Houthis, attacked oil facilities in Khurais and Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia, leading to a drop of 5% in global petroleum output. This was a significant attack against an ally of the United States, and what did Trump do? Nothing. In the end, National Security Adviser John Bolton was fired/resigned (this is under dispute) following a disagreement with Trump over his policy on Iran. Bolton was belligerent and believed in overthrowing the ayatollahs’ regime and attacking the Iranian nuclear program. Trump believed in negotiations.

In May 2019, Trump said during a press conference that he was “not looking for regime change” in Iran [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Otb7HYa-7jo ] [PS] and sent Shinzo Abe (then prime minister of Japan) as a mediator to Iran in order to renew nuclear talks. But Trump’s negotiations failed.

One should not forget the Houthis. Despite placing them on the terrorism list, Trump did nothing regarding the Houthis. During the years 2015-2022, the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia and upgraded their own military capabilities. In 2015 almost 15% of their attacks were with precision missiles; in 2022 the rate had increased to 89%. The upgrade took place under Trump’s watch, but he went back to the mantra that if he had been president rather than Biden, these events would have been addressed differently.

And closer to home, in his recent election campaign, Trump said again and again that Israel must end the war in Gaza as quickly as possible. After his election victory, his office announced that if Israel wanted to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it should happen “now”; i.e., under Biden and before Trump’s inauguration.

Despite Biden being accused of being a “leftist,” facts should be remembered: It was under Biden that Israel conducted the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, eliminated tens of thousands of terrorists, assassinated Yahya Sinwar, conducted a successful battle in Lebanon, and attacked for the first time in Iran. This was under Biden and not under Trump.

Also, regarding the hostage deal, which was on the table during the Biden administration and called by many an “abandonment deal,” it was accepted the day before Trump’s entrance into office with the mediation of special envoy Steve Witkoff. This is the same “abandonment deal,” yet Trump is a “strong president.”

Surrender to the Russian-Iranian Axis

Also, recent moves by Trump do not bode well. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that during their conversation on Ukraine on February 12, Putin agreed to Trump’s request to mediate in nuclear talks with Iran and Iran’s “arms” in the Middle East. Russia is a strategic partner of Iran and at the beginning of the year the two sides signed a strategic cooperation agreement. It is not clear how Trump thought that Putin would be a fair mediator, given that Russia and Iran have strategic and ideological interests in undermining American hegemony.

In addition, Trump sent a letter to Ali Hosseini Khamenei at the beginning of the month seeking to enter into negotiations on the nuclear program. Khamenei and the rest of the Iranian leadership completely rejected his request. The E-3 countries (Great Britain, France and Germany) set a deadline of June for Iran to reach a new agreement. And if not, then they would impose full sanctions on the Islamic Republic (these are called snapback sanctions); however, this is not likely to happen. Iran is ready for war, particularly in the naval arena.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency announced this month that Iran already has enough uranium to produce six atom bombs. The last report by the agency showed an increase of 50% in enriched uranium at a 60% level, and that Iran has maintained more than 270 kilograms of that material since November. It is becoming clear there is no time for statements and agreements.

In March 2025, the American Central Command began an air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen including new threats against Iran. Similarly, last week following a joint 3-day exercise by the navies of Russia, Iran and China, representatives of the three nations met in Beijing to stand by Iran and its nuclear program and even announced that the program is for “peaceful purposes.” Will Trump be able to stand in a single front against those three Euro-Asiatic nations?

If one can learn something from the history of Trump, then these are two conclusions:

Trump is inferior at negotiations. He does not reach good agreements with hostile countries — not with Russia, not with Iran, not with China, and not with North Korea.

Trump is a vacillating president who is not ready to risk war.

Many countries will be impacted negatively by a nuclear Iran; for Israel, this is an existential threat and, in fact, under Trump the threat will likely become a reality.