U.S. Support May Not Save Maliki

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s ship of state is sailing through rough seas and could sink at any moment. Al-Maliki is under attack from several quarters, including some of his Shiite supporters and his Kurdish allies.

Despite the firm support of U.S. President George Bush, Iraqi politicians and members of Parliament are reportedly working quietly behind the scenes to topple Maliki’s government.

The government’s main allies the Kurds may decide not to dump Maliki, in light of recent concessions he made to them regarding their share of Iraq’s oil revenues and the oil-rich city of Kirkuk – which the Kurds would like to add to their semi-independent enclave.

[Editor’s Note: The president of the Kurdish Regional Government, Massoud Barzani, last Tuesday threatened “a real civil war” in Iraq if a referendum to incorporate the oil-rich city of Kirkuk into Kurdish territory continues to be delayed by the other Iraqi political factions. The Kurds are insisting on holding a referendum according to Clause 140 of the U.S.-Engineered Iraqi Constitution. If the referendum passes (and it will, since Kurds have been flooding the city since the fall of Saddam), the Kurdish region would be transformed into one of the world’s top 10 oil producers overnight. The Kirkuk region includes Iraq’s oldest oil fields and as much as 40 percent of the country’s total untapped oil reserves].

But Sunnis have already withdrawn from his Government, and there strong indications that other blocs will follow suit. Twelve ministers have already opted out of the Government.

Government reform under Maliki has stalled as have plans to amend the Constitution to address the concerns by Iraqi Sunnis and other groups.

Only recently, the government reversed the de-Baathification under which former Baath Party members and people who worked in “sensitive” institutions like the army and intelligence agencies were banned from working in the government.

President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, is reportedly disappointed with Maliki’s performance, and has warned him not to misinterpret public U.S. support for his government.

Insiders say that repeated praise and support from Bush have emboldened Maliki to the point that he is reneging on promises he made to influential opponents of his leadership.

The country’s political crisis comes amid rising tension, mounting insecurity and strong indications that the so-called surge of U.S. forces in Baghdad has failed to achieve any of its stated goals.