The U.S. presidential election, which will take place on Nov. 3, 2020, is guaranteed to be the most scandalous in the history of the country. Moreover, it is possible that the vote will not definitively answer the question of who will become the head of the United States.
“We’re Going to Have To See What Happens.”
In a press conference at the White House, incumbent president Donald Trump was asked whether he can guarantee the peaceful transfer of power in the event of his defeat in the election.
“We’re going to have to see what happens, you know that. I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster.” “Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very peaceful – there won’t be a transfer, frankly. There will be a continuation,” writes RIA Novosti news quoting Trump’s response. The Democratic candidate Joe Biden hastened to react to his opponent’s words. “What country are we in? Look, he says the most irrational things. I don’t know what to say about it. But it doesn’t surprise me,” RIA quotes from The Hill.
Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who became the only one of Trump’s party members to express support for his removal from office during the impeachment process, wrote on Twitter: “Fundamental to democracy is the peaceful transition of power; without that, there is Belarus. Any suggestion that a president might not respect this Constitutional guarantee is both unthinkable and unacceptable.”
It should be noted that the Democrats were first to bring up the possibility that the election results may not be recognized.
In August, former Secretary of State and former first lady Hillary Clinton stated: “Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances, because I think this is going to drag out, and eventually I do believe he will win if we don’t give an inch, and if we are focused and relentless as the other side is.”
Mail-in Voting with the “Blue Shift” Effect
The core of the issue is that in 2020, for the first time in a while, the outcome of the election could remain uncertain for several days or even weeks.
The stumbling block seems to be the mail-in vote. Though it is not a new method for America. For example, in 2016 about 33 million people voted through the mail, which is around a quarter of all votes. In states such as Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington, mail-in votes are generally the only form accepted. However, this year, the scale of mail-in votes promises to be unprecedented. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, around 100 million people could vote absentee. There is an effect called the “blue shift” in the U.S. The idea is that mostly Republican voters will come to the polling station on election day, while Democratic supporters will choose to vote by mail. Eventually the following will happen: after counting votes from the polling station, a Republican victory will be recorded, but after mail-in ballots are counted, the victory will officially be given to the opponent.
Critics of mail-in voting claim that it is not protected from the possibility of various manipulations, scheming and fraud.
For example, in the 2018 midterm Congressional elections, approximately 114,000 votes were not counted because the ballots were received too late. Tens of thousands of ballots were canceled due to signatures either missing on envelopes or not corresponding to the original. Also, envelope collectors can intentionally ignore areas dominated by a particular candidate in order to prevent additional votes for the opponent.
Biden Is Leading. But Is This Not Accurate?
In general, mail-in voting already had a lot of critics, but now, when it will become a more decisive part of the election, the consequences promise to be completely unpredictable. In current polls, Republicans in the U.S. give preference to Joe Biden — he outpaces Donald Trump by 5 percent to 6 percent.
But, first of all, this gap is smaller than it was a couple of months ago. Endless anti-racism protests that have continued since the spring exhausted the average person and began to work against the Democrats. Secondly, four years ago polls indicated that Clinton had an advantage over Trump, yet the results of the vote were different. Third, American experts point out that Trump’s electorate is generally less willing to participate in polls, preferring to be silent until Election Day. Therefore the election could turn out completely unexpectedly in 2020.
The situation is becoming truly scary. It is quite possible that on Nov. 3, votes made at the polling station will ensure a decisive victory for Donald Trump. And subsequently, after the mail-in votes are gradually counted, it will turn into a triumph for Biden.
Democratic supporters are not ready to accept this first result and the Republicans are already currently declaring the second result to be false.
Trump Takes Control of the Supreme Court
It is not difficult to guess what this may lead to when internal contradictions in the U.S. have reached a climax. Neither side intends to surrender and is ready to go to the end.
As far back as June, Biden stated, “You have so many rank and file military personnel saying, well, we’re not a military state, this is not who we are. I promise you, I’m absolutely convinced, they will escort him from the White House in a dispatch.” “He” refers to Trump. However, appealing to the military in this situation is not the best option for Democrats. For one thing, rank-and-file security officers watching and observing, what is happening in the country in recent months more likely are ready to come forward on Trump’s side, not Biden’s.
On Sept. 18, 2020, the oldest member of the Supreme Court, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, died at 87 years old. And strangely, this event could affect the results of the election as well. The highest court in the U.S. consists of nine justices, who are appointed by the president with the Senate’s approval. Specifically, the Supreme Court could become the last resort in determining the outcome of the election in November. They do this by approving or nullifying the election results, for one reason or another. Until now, the Supreme Court’s bias remained uncertain. Four conservative justices were classified as Trump supporters and the other five, rather, were considered his opponents. What is certain is that Ginsburg was an avid opponent of the current president. She publicly expressed to her relatives her desire to live until Trump could no longer pick a candidate to fill her vacancy. But it didn’t happen, and now the Democratic Party is in a panic. The thing is, the U.S. president announced his intention to fill the justice’s vacancy as soon as possible, openly stating that this could play a crucial role in the election. Democrats demand that he not do this and leave this privilege to whoever wins the election.
Is a Collision Inevitable?
In this case, each side’s motivation is clear as day. Trump wants to get a guaranteed majority in the Supreme Court and the Democrats are trying to prevent this at all costs.
However, they do not have enough leverage for this. The Senate, in which Republicans have the majority, will decide how the justice matter will play out. So the stakes will continue to be high for Trump in this round of confrontation.
Right now, the Democrats and Republicans are like two fighter jets, flying head-on at each other. So far, both have expressed confidence in their inevitable success and are raising the stakes. But it seems that a real catastrophe is coming to the U.S.
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