Time To Deescalate

The deterrence strategy with respect to Russia brings Europe and Ukraine closer to the U.S., although they are not part of the conversation.

The most optimistic piece of news this Friday is easy to summarize: The diplomatic path remains open, something we could infer from the 90-minute meeting in Geneva between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Things should stay the same for at least another week, during which time Washington is expected to reply in writing to the proposal from Moscow in which Russia intends to veto any expansion of NATO.* Russia is also demanding the withdrawal of NATO forces from all countries that were under Soviet control until the end of the Cold War. It is possible that Russia must threaten a hot spot to achieve the kind of conflict that Vladimir Putin wants, and that could be the role Moscow sees for Ukraine.

Russia has continued its military escalation as it gathers troops, armored vehicles and aircraft on the border with Ukraine, and conducts naval drills in surrounding waters while issuing undiplomatic threats. There is no guarantee that Russia will accept the State Department response to its claim on restoring Soviet territory to where it was when Joseph Stalin and Franklin D. Roosevelt drew the map of Europe in 1945 at Yalta. With the diplomatic way open, the Western allies will have a chance to demonstrate the extent their solidarity with Ukraine, and how much of an obstacle is presented by the desire for strategic autonomy and control over energy supplies.

The European Union has been excluded from the conversation so far. Kyiv, the government that is involved the most in these talks, has also been excluded. Putin knows how to exploit these difficulties to weaken his adversaries, which is why total unity among NATO, the European Union and their partners is more necessary than ever. This is not the moment for a leadership contest, because a military invasion would not only have devastating consequences for Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole, its economy, its political integration and its security. There is no doubt about the need for greater strategic autonomy for Europe, nor about the leading role it plays the international diplomatic chess board. These are issues that require will, persistence and time, but they are not enough to evade the challenge that Russia poses to all Europeans. In this context, the Spanish government is (pursuant to the decision by the NATO military committee in December) sending ships and planes to the area to reinforce deterrence.

Blinken’s response to Lavrov will address guarantees for everyone’s security in terms of disarmament, transparency and confidence-building measures. According to Blinken, Russia should choose diplomacy over conflict, something “which would only precipitate the threats it intends to avoid.”** This statement implies that the reaction to any military action would lead to the immediate expansion of NATO, at least by admitting Sweden and Finland. Given the chance for dialogue that Washington is offering, the appropriate response from Moscow would be to begin withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian borders.

*Editor’s note: The United States responded to Russia’s demands on Jan. 26, rejecting a demand that Ukraine never join NATO, among other matters.

**Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, the precise language of this quoted remark could not be independently verified.