Western Inadequacy Plays into Russia’s Hands*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

The West has no idea what to do with Russia — and when the world is changing right before our eyes, too. The Atlantic elite have not yet realized the consequences of detonating an atomic bomb of financial and economic sanctions, supposedly aimed at Russia. Almost no one wants to think that the collateral damage from the sanctions will affect the entire world economy and deprive the West of control over it. However, people already understand that sanctions alone will not lead to Russia’s collapse. People also realize that hoping dissatisfied Russians will revolt is futile. Nevertheless, not everyone has given up; there are still those who believe that the Russians will decide to commit suicide.

Nevertheless, the late Sen. John McCain’s friend and heir, Sen. Lindsey Graham, has simply urged Russians to kill Vladimir Putin. Indeed, what is left to do if none of the challenges to Russia are having the desired effect?

“Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military? The only way this ends is for somebody in Russia to take this guy out. You would be doing your country — and the world — a great service,” Graham tweeted.

The Western elite’s genuine belief that they lead a nation chosen by God entitled to world domination and are opposed only by fiends from hell has long done them a disservice. This elite does not understand who it’s dealing with and how the world works. That is, not only does this elite fail to recognize Russia’s national interests or consider who the real Russian is, but it also prefers to live in a world of their own imagination and deal with a mythical Russia. Hence their genuine astonishment: How is it that Russians support Putin? Don’t they see what we see?

These imaginary Russians should have overthrown Putin back in 2011. Joe Biden was in Moscow that year, telling the “regime fighters” about how he suggested to Putin that he leave the Kremlin. These imaginary Russians should have turned their backs on Putin in 2014, the year that Barack Obama “ripped the Russian economy to shreds,” and the oligarchs should have conspired to take the president out. Now, these “Russians” are supposed to kill their leader. Not on orders from outside, but to help their country and the world!

You can’t be particularly angry about these kinds of statements, or about appeals on social media around the world that encourage Russian citizens to take it to the streets and overthrow the government. On the contrary, all this only shows how much the Western elite does not understand Russia, how much it fails to realize that its agitation and propaganda only unite and mobilize the Russian people. And most importantly, its distorted perception prevents it from making intelligent decisions and taking responsibility for the consequences of its actions.

This delusion concerns not only Russia; in the same way, the Western elite no longer understand the rest of the world and how it feels. Otherwise, these elites would not have detonated an “atomic bomb” of anti-Russia sanctions. This elite should have understood how it would be perceived by the rest of the world and what consequences the measures would lead to in just a couple of moves. That is, after forcing many countries to comply with Western sanctions.

Otherwise, this elite would not have tried to persuade many large and influential Group of 20 countries, such as India and Turkey, to join in imposing sanctions on Russia. Instead, they would have understood the very essence of their foreign policy strategy — that these countries seek to increase their geopolitical importance as independent players, not junior partners of the West.

Otherwise, this elite group would not be behaving so stupidly with China now, as it urges China to simultaneously turn its back on Russia and warns China against intervening in Taiwan. Instead, they would have understood that the first is impossible because it is not in China’s interests. Yet, at the same time, the latter hits America’s own opportunities in the struggle against China.

On Friday, March 4, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for immediate recognition of Taiwan’s independence and did so during a visit to the island nation. Clearly, Pompeo is not an official government representative now. Still, the current administration is also clearly looking to provoke the Chinese dragon.

Is the U.S. afraid of a Chinese attack on Taiwan and losing an ally, like in the case of Ukraine? Is that why it talks about the need not to recognize Taiwan, but to provide additional guarantees to protect the island from Chinese aggression? This is all propaganda and self-deception: In fact, the U.S. cannot keep Taiwan within its sphere of influence even in the medium-term.

Not because China intends to conquer Taiwan by force. Beijing will inevitably reincorporate the island through peaceful means, such as the “one country, two systems” policy it tested in Hong Kong. Yes, it will not happen tomorrow or in five years, but when China secures its military advantage in coastal waters — that is, when it can guarantee that the Americans will not be allowed near China’s and the Taiwanese coasts. Naturally, understanding that this is inevitable angers the United States. Those who do not want to deal with reality propose that Taiwan be recognized immediately. Why do they do this?

Some do so simply out of sheer stupidity — they believe the U.S. can prevent reunification by forever restraining China throughout the entire Pacific region. There is nothing to say here; it is simply unrealistic in the medium term.

Others are deliberately trying to provoke a conflict or make one more likely. That’s because the recognition of Taiwan’s independence is a second geopolitical atomic bomb, comparable in its consequences to the one that has already been detonated by sanctions against Russia. The recognition of Taiwan will automatically cause Beijing to sever diplomatic relations with Washington. A financial and economic war between the world’s two major economies will gradually begin.

However, given the total financial and economic war already declared by the West against Russia, the situation will turn into a war between the Western and Eastern economies.

Right now, it is clear that Washington does not want this to happen — the U.S. is still hoping to assemble some kind of a united front against China. Moreover, given the current confrontation with Russia, the West categorically does not need a second front against China, even a financial and economic one.

But then why are they now provoking China in Taiwan? Why do they believe in a real broad anti-Chinese coalition, and not only an ideological coalition (as it proposed at the Summit for Democracy), but also geopolitical (through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with India)? The disconnection of the Western elite from reality, its misjudgment about their capabilities and the enemy’s intentions (some in Washington sincerely refuse to rule out a Chinese strike on Taiwan right now) combined produce calls for quick recognition the island nation.

And this in itself weakens rather than strengthens America’s position. Beijing sees that the U.S. is being provocative by playing the Taiwan card. And at the same time, China sees how the West commands the European economy by cutting off its ties with Russia. So, hypothetically, can they do the same with economic relations between the EU and China? Still, Beijing also sees that the West is doing irreversible damage to its position in the global financial system, and doing harm to itself.

What is left for Chinese leaders to think? That the Atlanticists are incapable, and they don’t know they’re doing. And then Graham emerges with a call to “kill Putin,” and Pompeo, demanding the recognition of Taiwan, in the end confirms Chinese doubts about the West’s interpretation of reality.

We are dealing with an inadequate hegemon. This is why, in many ways, this hegemon is losing power. Both Russia and China just need to quietly get on with their job and move toward their goal, both individually and together.