Shortsighted Saudis

The collapse of the old deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia is due to material forces on both sides. But Riyadh is doing itself no favors with its current course.

In the Middle East, a region that does not really lack for political upheaval, the weakening of the Saudi-American alliance is another disruption. The reasons are deep seated and originated before the current dispute over Russia.

At the core is the collapse of the old deal that once brought the two countries together: the Saudis provided (cheap) oil and the U.S. provided security. Joe Biden’s predecessor reneged on America’s part of the agreement, and the young crown prince in Riyadh is now questioning the Saudis’ commitment. Both sides are driven by material forces. The U.S. has overextended itself as a global police force; the Saudi kingdom needs money to prepare for a decarbonized future.

Outlook in Ukraine

Still, the course that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is setting is shockingly shortsighted. Ukraine is providing him with an ongoing lesson in how the U.S. sticks with its partners when the going gets really rough.

But now that we can sense that Riyadh is taking sides against the United States in the greatest geopolitical crisis in decades (not to mention doing damage to the Biden administration’s midterm election prospects), more people in Washington will ask whether the Saudis are still their partners. If Iran wasn’t busy dealing with other things, it would have a reason to celebrate.