Midterms in the US: Uncertain Future

The U.S. is no longer capable of reaching political consensus.

“It’s the economy, stupid.” This comment, attributed to former President Bill Clinton, is more relevant than ever in the U.S. today.* Tuesday is Election Day, with races at multiple levels. Front and center, of course, are the gubernatorial and congressional eletions.

Just two months ago, the Democratic Party hoped to draw undecided voters to their side with the polarized subject of abortion. Now, however, the economic situation dominates discussions. Inflation is at its highest level in 40 years. Groceries, gas and housing cost noticeably more, and interest rates are rising. It does little to help when the Democrats correctly point out that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is driving inflation worldwide and that the U.S. economy is actually doing fine. In recent weeks, Republicans have jumped on the gift that rising prices are for the election and are successfully blaming them on Joe Biden. The Democrats, in contrast, have long made the mistake of emphasizing issues like abortion and the looming threat to democracy instead of convincing voters that they are economically competent.

Bitter Enemies

Speaking of the looming threat to democracy. Democracy in the U.S. has been shaky for a while, not just since the storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. But this election season also clearly demonstrates, of course, that Democrats and Republicans are no longer just political opponents but bitter enemies who fight each other with every means possible. It is an ignoble drama for the “land of the free.” In 2021 alone, Capitol police in Washington recorded 10 times more threats against members of Congress than before the 2016 election. Death threats and calls for the death penalty for politicians occur every day. The attack on Paul Pelosi with a hammer is just the tip of the iceberg. The “healing” of the U.S. that Biden promised when he took office has obviously failed.

The U.S. is apparently no longer capable of reaching political consensus. According to CNN, 70% of Republican voters believe that Biden really did steal the 2020 election. If both the House of Representatives and the Senate fall to the Republicans on Tuesday, it is likely the country will face a political standstill and conflict on multiple levels.

Regardless of what happens, one essential question will rise to the top with renewed vigor after the midterms: Will an 82-year-old Biden run for reelection in 2024? And will his opponent be named Donald Trump? Even many Democrats doubt that Biden is the right candidate. But the dilemma is that there is no alternative at hand who can defeat Trump.

The midterms are, in any case, just a taste of what’s to come in 2024. That is when the fate of U.S. democracy could really be decided.

*Editor’s note: “It’s the economy, stupid” was a phrase coined by James Carville in 1992 when he was advising Bill Clinton in his successful run for the White House.