The War in Ukraine: A Turning Point

We are now one month into the new year, and the war between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Ukraine goes on, continuing to be the most important event affecting international relations. For the U.S. and the EU, the war in Ukraine and the position that other countries take on it, whether they accept or reject the strategy of Putin’s Russia, have become a litmus test for bilateral and multilateral relations. Many political and military experts in the U.S. and Europe see the war in Ukraine as a turning point for the future of the world and, in particular, for Western countries. Still, after a year of this war, the U.S. and Europe still cannot predict the future of the war or which side will win!

Expert opinions reveal the following analysis:

First, by prolonging the war, the Biden administration hopes to spread its political propaganda of a united, democratic West that is confronting a dictatorship. The longer the war goes on, the more isolated Putin and his allies will become internationally until they eventually accept defeat.

Second, the Biden White House’s most basic plan at the moment is to ensure that Democrats win next year’s presidential election. Biden and his political supporters calculate that if Ukrainian resistance continues, Putin will gradually be pushed into a corner at the cost of his powerful reputation. Therefore, Biden sees the war in Ukraine as a chance to secure a victory for himself and the Democratic Party in the upcoming presidential election.

Third, certain political and military observers believe that prolonging the war in Ukraine would create a trans-Atlantic gap, and they’ve written: “There are several points of disagreement over the war in Ukraine among NATO allies. At first, it seems once again that the most pressing issue is the conflict between the West and Russia, which will supersede any other matters, but Biden’s comments from the White House about his limitations on support for Ukraine due to some European allies’ opposition to a continued war with Russia showed the issue to be more challenging than previously thought. Among the NATO nations supporting Ukraine, the main differences concern military and financial aid to Ukraine, potential risks of continuing the war, and the general perception in Eastern and Western Europe of a conflict with Russia. At the outset of the war, the United States and its NATO allies were united in prioritizing support for Ukraine. In the U.S., Republican senators loudly demanded that Biden provide Kyiv with weapons immediately, but now many Republican senators criticize Biden’s military and financial support to Ukraine. There are many reasons for this. A wide swath of Republicans, especially those belonging to the ‘America First’ wing of the party, are critical of the fact that Europe is once again getting free support from the U.S. Right now, the U.S. is supporting most of the burden of the support to Ukraine. By October of last year, the U.S. had provided Ukraine with $8.5 billion in support, while EU support over the same period did not exceed $3.6 billion.”*

Fourth, since the onset of the war in Ukraine, many Western political and military strategists have said it is really a confrontation between Biden and Putin and that it has the potential to lead to nuclear war. Now many individuals, especially international officials, are warning about such a possibility. The war in Ukraine has become a dangerous turning point in international relations. At the same time, many countries — including China, India and the Arab petrostates in the Gulf — have benefited from and continue to benefit from prolonging the conflict.

Three predictions about the war in Ukraine seem clear.

First, a war of attrition will continue, and both sides will pay a heavy price. While Russia will take significant and unpredictable losses, at the same time it will also make continued involvement in the war even more costly and time-consuming for the West.

Yesterday the Ukrainian government announced that with the arrival of winter and the cold weather, Moscow is preparing 500,000 soldiers for a new military offensive. Meanwhile, Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S. are sending tanks and other military equipment to Ukraine while they are also intensifying psychological warfare and propaganda. Of course, Washington has denied reports about delivering F-16 planes to the Ukrainian army.

Under these circumstances, we can further predict that efforts for a ceasefire and political resolution of this crisis by the United Nations and other countries will continue but are unlikely to produce a resolution anytime soon. Moreover, as the war goes on, it will only grow more intense and cause widespread damage as well as a stronger possibility of igniting nuclear war.

*Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, to the extent any or all of these remarks were originally made in English, they could not be independently verified.